Bellway Says Your First Home Could Lift Output by 10%

Bellway chief executive Jason Honeyman said the government's Your First Home programme could lift the housebuilder's annual output by 10%. He based the estimate on past experience with Help to Buy. The assessment was disclosed alongside Bellway's results for the year to 31 August. The Guardian

Honeyman said the scheme could bring annual completions back to 10,000 homes in the 12-month period from next September at the earliest. He described it as a path back to at least 10,000 homes a year and a 15% return on equity (profit against shareholder funds) with a market recovery. Honeyman has led Bellway since 2017.

Your First Home applies only in England and is for first-time buyers of new-build flats or houses. It offers a government-backed equity loan (a loan linked to the home's value) worth 20% of the purchase price with a minimum buyer deposit of 2.5%. Full details, including the launch date, are expected from Chancellor John Healey in his budget on 28 October.

For the year to 31 August, Bellway reported revenue of £3.16bn, up 13% from the previous year, and underlying profit before tax of £305.7m, up 5.7%. It targets 9,000 to 9,400 completions in the current year, down from 9,695 last year. Its forward order book (homes reserved but not yet completed) stood at 4,981 homes worth £1.4bn, compared with 5,285 homes worth £1.5bn a year earlier. It expects average selling price to stay flat at about £325,000 over the coming year.

Honeyman also cautioned that Your First Home could weigh on the housing market in the near term as some buyers wait for its launch.

The broader context here is a market searching for volume without losing profit. On 25 March 2025, Bellway reported a 12% rise in half-year profit, citing lower mortgage rates and improved consumer confidence. Reuters That recovery did not hold into 2026. In the first half of fiscal 2026, the private reservation rate including bulk sales fell to 0.47 homes per outlet per week, and in March 2026 Bellway cut its fiscal 2026 operating margin guidance to 10.5% from 11%. Reuters

Looking at what this means for Bellway and for policy, the Help to Buy analogy does much of the work. In October 2021, Bellway reported a surge in annual profit and said it expected to build 10% more homes, a period when equity-loan support underpinned first-time buyer demand for new build. Reuters Honeyman is now applying that precedent directly to Your First Home.

In my view, the variables to watch are timing, eligibility administration, and pricing power. A 20% equity loan with a 2.5% minimum deposit lowers the deposit constraint but leaves mortgage affordability, valuation risk on new build, and outlet throughput unresolved. A thinner forward order book and flat pricing outlook suggest limited scope to push price to offset build-cost pressure. The 15% return on equity target is therefore conditional. It depends on a market recovery alongside the scheme, not the scheme alone.

The wider picture for the UK is that England-only coverage matters. Bellway operates across the UK, so a 10% volume uplift at group level would require a disproportionate response from English outlets. This points to a familiar pause before demand-side help takes effect. Buyers with small deposits have the strongest incentive to delay. The near-term hiatus Honeyman flagged could also depress private reservations and order-book conversion through the winter before budget-day clarity on 28 October restores momentum.