Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan flatly ruled out a coalition arrangement with One Nation on Sunday, telling ABC's Insiders that the idea was "not even being talked about" and that the Liberals had no interest in it.

"We do not want to be part of a coalition with One Nation," Tehan told Insiders. "We want to be part of a coalition with the Liberal party and the National party." The repetition was deliberate — three separate denials to lock down the answer. "We're not entertaining or discussing or being part of a coalition with One Nation."

The trouble is, his colleagues aren't on the same page. Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie has vowed "war" on Pauline Hanson's party, while junior shadow minister Tony Pasin has floated a seat-sharing deal — the opposite approach. Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie indicated she'd campaign for Hanson in Labor-held seats. Former prime minister Tony Abbott, now Liberal party president, has backed preference deals with One Nation outright (that's when parties agree to recommend their voters support each other if their own candidate loses). That's four different positions from four senior figures inside or near the opposition, ranging from open conflict to effective partnership.

Here's the context that makes this more than typical internal noise: recent polling shows Labor at 30% primary vote, One Nation at 26%, and the Coalition at 23%. Broader polls through early July had One Nation in the high 20s to low 30s and the Coalition in the high teens to low 20s. On primary votes, One Nation is outpolling the official opposition — that's a structural problem for opposition leader Angus Taylor that a single Sunday interview doesn't fix.

Tehan's strategy makes sense on paper. Every vote One Nation takes from the Coalition is recoverable through preferences if the two parties direct voters to each other. A formal alliance, by contrast, would reshape the Liberal brand — and not in a way that helps them win back the moderate metropolitan seats they need to form government. The logic is sound, even if his colleagues haven't all arrived there.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was at the NSW Labor Party Conference doing what sitting governments do when their opponents are tangled. He branded the Liberals, Nationals, and One Nation an "axis of grievance" and warned of a "race to the bottom" — framing designed to tie them together regardless of what Tehan says. It works. The longer this opposition debate stays on the front page, the longer Albanese controls the narrative.

The real problem for the Liberals is whether this position can hold. Tehan's line is the right one for the Liberal brand, and no serious figure inside the party is actually proposing cabinet seats for One Nation. But the harder questions — preferences, seat-level campaigns, and whether the Nationals keep operating independently — are different matters. McKenzie's willingness to assist Hanson in Labor marginals is a real fact on the ground. The gap between a formal coalition and a de facto preference alliance might be legally meaningful, but it's tough to argue from the opposition benches when your own polling is behind the party you're supposedly competing against.

Whether the rest of his party holds Tehan's line is another question entirely.