No major tax cuts until surplus, but Willis leaves door open for business relief
National will not bring in major tax cuts next term until the Budget is back in surplus, finance spokesperson Nicola Willis says.
She signalled interest in future relief for business, possibly alongside cuts to personal tax rates, ahead of the ASB finance spokesperson debate on Wednesday night in Queenstown. The surplus, when the Government collects more than it spends, is forecast for around 2028/29, according to RNZ.
The sequencing is explicit. Willis said reducing debt under her fiscal plan must come first before any new tax cuts, a position she set out earlier this week, according to 1News. National says each of its policy commitments was fully funded to start by 1 July 2027 in its fiscal plan. Leader Christopher Luxon and Willis have promised no new taxes if National is re-elected on 7 November, according to National. The party published 'National's plan to secure New Zealand's future' on 12 October, attributed to Willis.
On business tax settings, Willis pointed to the gap with peers. New Zealand's headline company rate is 28 percent, compared with an OECD average of about 24 percent. She said she is interested in expanding the R&D tax credit, which lowers tax for firms that invest in research and innovation, to encourage business investment.
The positions of the other parties frame the choice for business voters. New Zealand First has proposed cutting company tax from 28 percent to 20 percent for small to medium companies with turnover under $30 million. That proposal was estimated to cost about $1 billion a year at first. Labour does not advocate for company tax cuts. Its policy includes replacing the Government's Investment Boost and lifting the tax write-off for small-business equipment or tool purchases from $1,000 to $10,000. Willis has said Investment Boost costs $5.5 billion over the forecast period, the years covered by the Budget forecasts.
The Queenstown event is the ASB Great Debate. It brings together the Minister of Finance and the finance spokespersons from the top six polling parties. For Press Gallery regulars it is the set-piece finance encounter of the campaign, held outside Wellington and focused on business costs, investment and fiscal credibility.
The fiscal backdrop has built for months. Willis said in July that the latest Government accounts support other evidence that the economy is strengthening, according to the Beehive. In her Budget 2026 speech she said the amount of net income a not-for-profit organisation can earn without paying tax would increase from $1,000 to $10,000.
The broader context here is sequencing and coalition arithmetic. Willis is holding two lines at once. No major cuts until surplus, and no new taxes, gives National a tight fiscal story for the next term. Interest in business relief and R&D, placed beyond surplus, gives business a forward signal without a funded commitment now.
Looking at what this means for the debate, the pressure points are clear. New Zealand First is offering a targeted company rate cut with a set fiscal cost. Labour is offering faster write-offs and a replacement for Investment Boost rather than a rate change. National is offering restraint now and relief later. Finance spokespersons will be asked to price those trade-offs against debt reduction and the 1 July 2027 start date in National's fiscal plan.
