Australia's National Gas Reservation Scheme: 2028 Start and 20% Rule
Resources Minister Madeleine King has locked in January 2028 for the start of Australia's first national gas reservation scheme.
Speaking to the National Press Club in Canberra on 14 October 2026, in an address listed for 11:30am, King said legislation now before the parliament would establish the scheme and bring it into effect from January 2028. The address followed a press conference announcing the scheme. The Guardian
What King announced
The core obligation is 20%. Gas companies would be required to set aside 20% of exports for domestic use. The Australian Energy Regulator, the independent umpire for energy markets, would handle compliance and could force companies to meet a target of 110% of projected demand each year.
Projected demand is simply the forecast of how much gas Australia is expected to need. The design is deliberately rules-based. Ministerial discretion would be limited. The Turnbull-era domestic gas security mechanism would be replaced. In the government's description, multiple Commonwealth interventions in the gas market would be replaced with an integrated rules-based framework. Joint Media Release
Why the government says we need it
King's case rested on duration and use. She said Australian industry will be reliant on gas for the "foreseeable future". There is currently no replacement for gas for industries that need it, she said.
She named heating homes, running manufacturing industries, domestically processing critical minerals and rare earths, and supporting the rollout of renewables.
Affordability was presented as central, not side issues. King said keeping gas affordable for households and businesses is a critical part of the scheme's primary focus. She said the scheme will put downward pressure on power prices.
She was cautious on the price path. She said the scheme will create a "modest" domestic oversupply and the laws will not cause a wholesale price "crash". ABC News No price was specified for gas under the proposal. No timeline was given for when households and businesses would see relief.
That caution follows two earlier decision points. In May 2026, Australia decided not to impose export restrictions on natural gas during winter after supply assurances. In September 2026, Australia softened a proposed east-coast gas reservation rule for LNG exporters that would have forced exporters to reserve 20% of output. Reuters
What to watch
The broader context here is a Canberra pattern energy watchers will know. Governments have cycled through warnings, negotiated assurances and trigger mechanisms that required a minister to pull the lever. King is arguing that cycle has failed to settle domestic supply, and that a standing national obligation enforced by the regulator will give producers, large users and retailers something firmer to plan around.
Looking at what this means for the politics and the market, the tests are compliance and price transmission. A 110% of projected demand target is only as firm as the demand forecast, the AER's enforcement appetite, and the way contracts flow through to the east-coast wholesale market and then to retail bills. Industry will parse the definition of exports, the treatment of existing long-term contracts, and exemptions. The crossbench and the states will parse whether "modest" oversupply is enough to move prices without deterring the new supply the framework assumes. Labor is promising order and downward pressure while ruling out a crash. That is a narrow path to walk — and King has left herself room on timing and level for a reason.
