Morgan Stanley's Brent Forecasts: From $110 to $75 and Back to $100
Morgan Stanley expected Brent to average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter as of Sept. 8, 2026, according to Reuters. Brent is the world benchmark for oil. That price helps set petrol and transport costs for households.
On April 13, 2026, the bank left its second-quarter Brent forecast unchanged at $110 a barrel, according to Reuters. The near-term view stayed high while supply recovery was still unclear.
On June 17, it cut its average third-quarter Dated Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $100, according to TheStreet. Dated Brent means physical oil for near delivery. The update came about two weeks before more cuts.
On June 30, it cut the third-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $75 a barrel from $90 and cut the fourth-quarter forecast to $75 from $80, according to Reuters. In the same round it expected Dated Brent at $70 a barrel at the end of 2027, according to OilPrice.com.
On March 3, Morgan Stanley said escalation with Iran is raising questions around oil supply, market volatility and market outlook, according to Morgan Stanley. On May 8, it said the Middle East conflict sent shockwaves through global markets, with higher oil prices and increasing inflation, according to Morgan Stanley. Inflation is a broad rise in prices.
In order, the views were $110 for the second quarter, $90 for the third quarter, $75 for both third and fourth quarters in late June, then $100 for the fourth quarter in early September, with $70 at end-2027.
The broader context here is the pull between disruption fear and supply math. A $100 fourth quarter points to tight oil now plus a risk premium, like an insurance charge for uncertainty, in spot and futures prices. A $70 end-2027 points to rebalancing later. For firms that store oil, refine it or hedge fuel, that slope affects storage choices, hedge ratios and the cost of holding oil into next year.
In my view, the revision path matters as much as any one number. The fall from triple-digit levels to $75 in June, then back to $100 for the fourth quarter in September, shows high uncertainty around supply, not a steady path. That is normal when flows, shipping and policy can shift week to week. Read the fourth-quarter and 2027 points as conditional what-ifs, not promises.
Looking at what this means for risk management, the gap is the issue. A wide spread between near-term views and the lower 2027 anchor leaves calendar spreads, or gaps between months, and volatility open to headline moves. Holders of Brent, airline and transport hedges, or inflation-linked positions should separate geopolitics from supply-demand math. The first drives swings. The second sets the anchor.
