TSMC's $46.7 Billion Quarter Beat Forecasts and Its Own Guidance
TSMC posted NT$1.49 trillion (US$46.71 billion) in third-quarter 2026 revenue, up 50% from a year earlier and above market forecasts. The result also cleared the company's own guidance range. Reuters
The company had guided third-quarter net revenue of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion, assuming 32.0 New Taiwan dollars per U.S. dollar. Guidance is its public forecast. Actual revenue of US$46.71 billion topped the high end. The beat was flagged in previews ahead of the full earnings release. MarketWatch
Monthly reports fill in the pace. TSMC issued its September 2026 Revenue Report on October 8, 2026. September revenue was listed as 511,857, up 54.6%, with 2026 year-to-date revenue at 3,898,727, up 41.1%. The company states that 2026 revenue figures have not been audited.
Profit is still in preview. The latest consensus, the average analyst estimate, put third-quarter net profit growth at 62%. A day earlier, consensus was framed as a 65% increase to NT$746.3 billion, which would be a sixth straight quarter of record profit. Reuters Net margin, the share of sales kept as profit, was seen at 50%. Yahoo Finance
Margin guidance pointed lower than the second quarter. TSMC guided third-quarter gross margin, sales left after factory costs, of 65.0% to 67.0% and operating margin, sales left after running the business, of 56.0% to 58.0%. That compares with second-quarter actuals of US$40.20 billion in net revenue, 67.7% gross margin and 60.3% operating margin.
The second quarter is the baseline. TSMC reported net profit of 706.56 billion New Taiwan dollars (about $21.94 billion), up 77%, against expectations for 626.82 billion New Taiwan dollars. Ahead of that report the company had posted a record month of revenue, with second-quarter earnings per share forecast at 24.45 New Taiwan dollars. In January TSMC signaled 2026 revenue growth of 30%, above the 25% analysts anticipated. Year-to-date revenue is up 41.1% on the monthly series. TSMC will avoid investor contact in its Quiet Period from October 5 to October 14, 2026. It will hold its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 14:00 Taiwan time / 2:00 Eastern Time.
The broader context here is currency versus volume and mix. Revenue beat a dollar guide built on 32.0, while September at 54.6% grew faster than the quarter at 50%. For a foundry, a contract maker of chips designed by others, that puts focus on wafer shipments and use of leading lines, and how much of the dollar beat reflects currency moves rather than units and mix strength.
Looking to the October 15 disclosure, the figures to reconcile are gross margin inside 65% to 67%, operating margin inside 56% to 58%, and net margin around the 50% level in previews. The second quarter printed above both third-quarter guides. If TSMC holds near the top of its ranges while growing from US$40.20 billion, the questions will be cost pass-through, spreading fixed costs over more output, and tax and other items between operating profit and net profit.
