US Winter to Be Warmer and Wetter as Strong El Niño Builds, NOAA Says
The United States is headed for a generally warmer and wetter winter, driven by a strengthening El Niño, NOAA said in its winter outlook reported Oct. 15, 2026. The Guardian
The outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. Its precipitation outlook shows wetter-than-average conditions most likely across the Southwest and the South, according to NOAA. NOAA said El Niño is likely to bring more moisture but also higher temperatures and should help erase persistent drought in the West.
On temperatures, NOAA forecast some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states to be warmer than normal, with no states forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are expected to see near-normal winter temperatures.
Snowfall is expected to split along regional lines. National Weather Service meteorologists forecast below-normal snowfall for the Northeast, Great Lakes, upper Midwest and northern Rockies, and more snow than usual for the southern Rockies, parts of the Southeast and the Southwest. Private forecaster AccuWeather expects Salt Lake City to be the only big metropolitan area with above-normal snow amounts, while Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia could get about half or less of their normal totals.
Forecasters describe the El Niño itself as unusually powerful. NOAA assessed that El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very-strong event likely through January-March 2027, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That center put the chance of persistence at that strength through January-March at greater than 83%. The U.N. weather body said El Niño is set to intensify and last until February 2027, expecting anomalies to reach 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal from October to December.
NOAA also reported that the U.S. winter has warmed about 4F (2.2C) over the past 50 years, predominantly from the human-caused climate crisis.
