Flavio Bolsonaro holds narrow lead over Lula ahead of Brazil run-off, poll finds

Flavio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 46% to 44% ahead of Brazil's presidential run-off on October 25, according to a Quaest poll released October 15. The survey is the first national snapshot of the second-round race since first-round voting on October 4. Al Jazeera

The two-point gap sits inside the poll's two-point margin of error. In practical terms, the candidates are tied. Quaest had not published a survey since before the first round, making this its first read on the narrowed field.

Neither man won a majority on October 4, so Brazilian rules require a run-off between the top two finishers. Bolsonaro finished less than two points ahead of Lula in that first round. The final decision now rests with voters returning to the polls on October 25.

Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula is the sitting president. Bolsonaro has been described in runoff coverage as the right-wing candidate. Reuters

Earlier national polls had pointed to a close race with small advantages shifting between the two. An October 1 Datafolha simulation of a run-off, reported by Reuters, put Lula at 48% and Bolsonaro at 45%. A CNT/MDA poll reported on October 3 put Lula at 47.3% against 43.1% for Bolsonaro in a run-off scenario, with Lula at 47.8% and Bolsonaro at 42.1% in first-round valid votes.

Polling just before the first round also captured late uncertainty. On the eve of the vote, Datafolha measured Lula at 45% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 42% in the first round. A separate Datafolha release had earlier found that 17% of voters said they could still change their vote.

State-level surveys in early October underlined regional differences. Datafolha found Bolsonaro leading the presidential contest in Sao Paulo in both first- and second-round scenarios. In Minas Gerais, the same pollster found Lula and Bolsonaro numerically tied on the eve of the election.

Separately, Brazil's Senate approved a constitutional amendment to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours per week without a reduction in pay. The approval was reported alongside the October 15 poll findings.

Voters will choose between Lula and Bolsonaro in the October 25 run-off.