Fewer families getting fuel relief payments than government promised

The government said about 157,000 families would get fuel relief payments when it announced the scheme in March. But Inland Revenue data shows only around 95,000 families have been receiving the money each week since April 1.

The figures have created a dispute between broadcaster RNZ and Finance Minister Nicola Willis. The minister was overheard telling Prime Minister Christopher Luxon that RNZ's reporting amounted to "mischief making."

How the payment works

The fuel relief is delivered through the in-work tax credit (IWTC), a regular payment to working families with children. In March, the government said it would add an extra $50 a week to this credit for about 143,000 families. Another 14,000 families would get a smaller boost. That brought the total to 157,000.

The extra money was set to run for up to a year, or until petrol prices dropped below $3 a litre for four weeks in a row — whichever happened first.

Why the numbers don't match

Inland Revenue figures show 106,120 families have received the payment at least once since it started. That still falls short of the 157,000 figure announced in March.

Willis's office blamed the payment system itself for the gap. Tax credit recipients can choose to take their money weekly, fortnightly, or as a lump sum at the end of the tax year on 31 March. Inland Revenue expected about 30,000 families — roughly 20 percent of eligible recipients — to wait for the lump sum rather than collect payments week by week. That choice would naturally lower the number of people claiming in any given week.

Even accounting for that 30,000, the numbers still don't fully add up to 157,000. Whether the shortfall reflects families who are eligible but haven't registered, processing delays at Inland Revenue, or an inflated initial projection remains unclear.

The political problem

The real issue sits in how the government changed its language between March and Budget Day on 28 May. The original press release said 143,000 families "will get" the extra payment. By Budget time, the government was saying support would reach "up to" 157,000 families — adding a qualification that wasn't there before.

This shift is worth noting. When a government moves from stating something flatly to hedging it with language like "up to" over two months, that invites scrutiny — especially on a public spending commitment. Willis's comment to Luxon suggests her office saw the coverage as unfair rather than as legitimate follow-up on promises made.

The government has framed the fuel relief as temporary — meant to ease immediate cost-of-living pressures, not to permanently change the tax credit. That context matters. A lower-than-expected weekly take-up could reflect people choosing to collect their money in a lump sum rather than real failure of the scheme. Inland Revenue's own prediction of 30,000 lump-sum recipients suggests the department saw this coming. The question is why the government didn't mention that possibility in its March announcement.

What remains unanswered

Once the scheme reaches its 12-month expiry or the petrol-price trigger kicks in — whichever comes first — it will matter more precisely what caused the gap. That will tell whether the government's cost forecasts for the relief were based on realistic assumptions about take-up, or whether something else is at work. For now, that distinction is unresolved.