Oil Holds Near $110 After $3 Swing on Possible Russian Supply
Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $109.55 a barrel after falling more than $3 earlier in the session, according to Reuters. Flat price, the headline price per barrel, stayed close to a five-month high.
Brent had topped $110 a barrel for the first time since May, Bloomberg reported on 17 October 2026. By trading reported on 19 October, oil was fluctuating near that high in a rally linked to supply risks from a flareup in the Middle East, according to Bloomberg.
Reuters linked the slip to a Trump sanction waiver that may lead to more Russian fuel supplies. Prices fell through stops, automatic sell orders set off by falling prices, before buyers returned into the close.
ANZ said in May that the Middle East conflict has affected tanker routes, and in separate commentary described an unprecedented shock to oil supply with a substantial war premium, an extra charge for disruption risk, held in the market. Its NZ Weekly Fuel Market Watch on 2 October 2026 said refined values were pushed up by Middle East disruption including Hormuz closure and war-risk premiums even as actual crude volumes fell.
Oil slid on 15 October as concerns about supply disruptions from the conflict eased, according to Bloomberg video reporting from that date. On 6 October, Reuters reported oil prices were little changed after recovering earlier losses as the market weighed increases in Middle Eastern crude exports.
Reuters reported oil settled at its lowest since early May in trading reported on 20 October 2025 on concerns over a potential global glut, or oversupply, and U.S.-China trade tensions. Reuters also reported on 10 August 2026 that Wall Street indexes retreated and oil rallied 5% with markets focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates, the U.S. rate that shapes borrowing costs. ANZ published a Commodity Insight on 8 April 2026 about Australia's fuel market supply vulnerability.
The broader context here is two offsets priced together. Rerouted tankers, Hormuz closure risk and war-risk premiums lift forward cover and refined import parity, the landed fuel cost, without raising wellhead production, while higher Middle Eastern exports in early October and the prospect of added Russian fuel under a U.S. waiver cap flat price. In my view, a drop of more than $3 ending down 31 cents near highs points to hedging and short covering rather than fresh buying, which leaves refiners and import-dependent buyers such as Australia and New Zealand paying more for routing and insurance even when crude is available.
