Brent Hits $110 as Attacks on Ships in the Strait of Hormuz Continue

Brent crude, the main global oil benchmark, touched $110 a barrel on Friday, October 16, 2026, its first trade at that level since May, as attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued, according to Al Jazeera. In the week ending that day, UKMTO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency that tracks shipping incidents, reported at least 12 ships attacked in its report issued late Friday.

Other tallies run higher. The Guardian reported on October 19 that at least 15 vessels had been struck in the strait over the previous 10 days, and that rumours circulated some were carrying valuable goods. Those cargo claims remain unconfirmed. The 12-ship and 15-vessel figures cover different windows and may use different inclusion rules, so they should not be added together.

The weekly series is also uneven. UKMTO recorded 11 attacks on commercial vessels in the week ending October 9, 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that eleven tankers came under attack in transit during the week ending October 4, which it described as the most strikes on commercial ships since the war began. UKMTO's recent incidents page lists 34 reports, but that page carries no date, so it is treated here as background only.

Incident descriptions have changed over the period as well. On September 20, a UKMTO update described a vessel hit by an unknown projectile that breached the hull and started a fire, which was extinguished. On October 5, UKMTO issued four warnings and an advisory about Iranian targeting of vessels in the strait. On Tuesday, October 13, a container ship and a tanker were struck in two separate incidents. The next day, UKMTO Warning 172-26 reported that a 50,000 tonne container ship was struck while on an inbound transit, with minor damage. Euronews, citing Reuters, reported that oil climbed in early trading that Wednesday after Iran reportedly attacked two vessels using new tactics.

On Sunday, October 18, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern strait, as Reuters reported. A mine is a different threat from the projectile strikes UKMTO has mostly described.

In my view, the mine matters more than its single entry suggests. A mine is harder to detect and harder to route around, and it complicates escort and insurance decisions in ways a stand-off projectile does not.

A UKMTO transit overview dated October 2 states that none of the vessels successfully hijacked or boarded were actively reporting to UKMTO before the incident.

In my view, reporting discipline is one of the few variables a ship's master controls directly, and it determines how quickly responders can act.

The price response has followed a pattern. Reuters reported on July 14 that oil rose 2% to a one-month high as US-Iran attacks deepened supply disruption. On July 31, oil rose after Iran said it stops ships in the strait. On August 7, oil rose on concerns over Strait of Hormuz reopening plans.

In my view, the word that matters in that last headline is plans. The market has repeatedly priced the risk of disruption, and the reopening it was reacting to had not been carried out.

The Independent described attacks on ships in the strait as at a record high, with oil at about $100 a barrel and attacks intensifying ahead of the US midterm elections. That is one outlet's characterisation, and it sits alongside the UKMTO counts rather than replacing them.

Here is what is established. Vessels have been struck repeatedly, UKMTO's counts are rising in some windows, and Brent has traded as high as $110.

In my view, what is priced in is a continuing disruption premium, meaning the extra amount traders add to oil when they expect supply to be at risk. That premium rests on expectations about how long the attacks last. The figures above measure attacks on ships, not barrels lost, and that distinction matters for anyone modelling supply.

The broader context here is what reaches households. Fuel and freight costs pass into consumer prices with a lag, and borrowing rates tied to inflation expectations move as well. These effects are slower and less visible than a headline price, but they are the ones people will eventually pay.