ACT has proposed a Three Strikes regime specifically targeting burglary, under which a third conviction would trigger a mandatory minimum sentence of three years in prison with no parole eligibility. Deputy leader Nicole McKee announced the policy, citing research that around one in four burglary victims have been targeted more than once RNZ.

According to McKee, 184,000 New Zealanders experienced burglary in 2025. She said most prisoners released after burglary sentences return to custody within two years, and that roughly three-quarters of burglary offenders are later resentenced for further crimes RNZ.

McKee framed the policy as prevention rather than deterrence. The idea is to remove repeat burglars from communities through long-term imprisonment rather than rely on the threat of punishment to change their behaviour RNZ.

This burglary proposal sits alongside the broader Three Strikes framework, which the current government reinstated in late 2024, just two years after Labour repealed it in 2022. The change came through the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Act, which received Royal assent on 17 December 2024 Ministry of Justice.

The reinstated framework applies to violent and sexual offences. The system works like this: a first qualifying conviction triggers a warning; a second brings another warning plus tighter parole conditions; and a third conviction carries the maximum sentence for that offence, served without parole unless a court deems it manifestly unjust. ACT's burglary extension moves that logic into property crime territory and sets the third-strike minimum at three years rather than the offence's statutory maximum.

This distinction matters. Burglary sits lower in the sentencing hierarchy than violent or sexual offences. The current maximum sentence for burglary is ten years, but most sentences are considerably shorter — often home detention or brief prison terms. A mandatory three-year floor applied without judicial discretion would be a substantial escalation for many offenders who would otherwise receive lighter sentences.

ACT's recidivism data forms the core of its argument: if most burglary offenders reoffend and return to prison quickly, the current sentencing and parole settings are not stopping a group causing significant harm to communities. However, the policy faces a practical test — officials and other parties will want to know how many burglary cases actually reach a third strike under current charging patterns, and how "conviction" would be counted across past and future offending.

The 184,000 victim figure represents a substantial increase from the picture ACT presented when it last pushed for burglary-specific Three Strikes in 2022, when polling cited 75 per cent public support for Three Strikes generally ACT. That earlier figure predates both Labour's repeal in 2022 and the current government's reinstatement in 2024, so it reflects older public sentiment rather than a current gauge of support for this specific extension.

Any changes to burglary sentencing would need Cabinet approval followed by Parliament, most likely as an amendment to the Sentencing Act 2002 rather than a standalone bill, since the reinstated Three Strikes framework already sits within that legislation. As a coalition partner rather than the lead justice minister, McKee's announcement functions as a policy position ACT wants the government to adopt rather than a confirmed government commitment. Whether National and New Zealand First will back a mandatory minimum for a property offence — distinct from the violent and sexual crimes the current regime targets — will determine whether this becomes law or remains a negotiating position in any future refresh of the government's justice work programme.