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Tesla Q3 2026: Flat Revenue, Lower Deliveries, and a Merger Question

Martin HollowayPublished 6m ago4 min readBased on 20 sources
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Tesla Q3 2026: Flat Revenue, Lower Deliveries, and a Merger Question
Photo by Debbie Rowe / CC BY-SA 4.0

Tesla reported net income of $1.7 billion on revenue of $28.0 billion for the third quarter of 2026, the quarter ended in September. The results came out on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The Verge reported that revenue was flat against Q3 2025, when Tesla booked $28.1 billion. Net income for the year-earlier quarter was $1.4 billion.

Revenue landed between two benchmarks. It beat the $27.9 billion Wall Street expectation compiled by LSEG, and it fell short of the $28.3 billion that Tesla's own company-compiled expectation had set. Pre-report consensus compiled by Bloomberg pointed to $28.13 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS (earnings per share, excluding certain items) of about $0.44, according to a Yahoo Finance preview published the same day. Electrek's preview from October 20 had put EPS near $0.45, down roughly 10 percent year over year.

Volume moved the other way. Tesla's third-quarter 2026 production and deliveries release, issued October 2, said the company produced over 464,000 vehicles and delivered over 486,000. It also deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage products. A gigawatt-hour is a unit of energy equal to one million kilowatt-hours, the unit on a household electricity bill. The Verge reported that customer deliveries fell 2.1 percent compared with Q3 2025. With revenue flat and deliveries down, the revenue line held up without help from unit growth.

The backdrop is the expiry of the $7,500 US federal tax credit for electric vehicles on September 30, 2025. That date sits one full year before the quarter just reported, so the comparison base now includes the pre-expiry buying period in Q3 2025. Musk said Tesla was in for “a few rough quarters” because of the expiring incentive and other macroeconomic factors. He did not give a specific figure or timeline beyond that phrase.

Musk also disclosed, shortly before the earnings call, that Tesla and SpaceX had each formed special committees to discuss a possible merger. He said a combination would be a “good idea” while also stating that he would not be involved in the process. No transaction has been announced. The two boards have not yet reported any outcome, so the question remains at the committee stage.

SpaceX's own third-quarter 2026 figures, as covered by CNBC, showed operating income of $2.8 billion and net income of $4.4 billion.

Tesla also re-revealed its next-generation Roadster in Waco, Texas. The demonstration showed a redesigned two-seat prototype flying and flipping under cold-gas thrusters, which push using stored compressed gas rather than combustion, supplied by SpaceX. The Roadster was first announced nine years ago. Tesla has promised that the next-generation model will enter production in 2028, a stated target rather than a delivery schedule customers can yet rely on.

Tesla's financial presentation follows GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles), with non-GAAP measures reconciled to it, as in recent quarterly updates. That matters when comparing the $1.7 billion headline with the adjusted figures sell-side analysts model. Tesla's Q3 2025 update reported $1.4 billion in GAAP net income alongside $1.8 billion in non-GAAP net income, so the gap between the two measures has been material before.

The broader context here is that Tesla's top line has stayed near its level of a year ago while unit deliveries contracted, and management is guiding to a period it describes as rough. Revenue of $28.0 billion is roughly four times the $6.3 billion the company booked in Q3 2019, which shows how far the business has scaled. The near-term question, however, is whether the energy storage line, the software and services revenue mix, and any eventual corporate combination can offset softer vehicle volume. The quarter itself does not yet answer that.