Analysts Say US and Iranian Positions Have Shifted Sharply Since February

Analysts say the positions of Washington and Tehran have changed dramatically since the war began, according to Al Jazeera, which published its review on October 23, 2026. The conflict started on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Talks over Iran's nuclear program were already under way at the time.

The opening strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to Al Jazeera's reporting. Hezbollah, the armed group based in Lebanon, responded to his killing, and Lebanon was drawn into the war in early March. Israel at one point occupied about one-fifth of Lebanon and displaced more than one million people. By March 7, at least 1,332 people had been reported killed in attacks on Iran since the war began.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, had been open to international shipping before the war. About one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas moved through it. Since the strikes, Tehran has tried to exert control over the strait, as Reuters reported in October. Iran said seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in and around the strait.

Diplomacy has moved in fits and starts. In October, Iran said the US response to its proposal to reopen Hormuz was "insufficient." The United States maintains a blockade of Iranian ports. Earlier, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding extending an April ceasefire, an agreed halt to fighting.

Each side's stated aims have also moved. Iran International reported that Washington wants Tehran to return to negotiations and reach a "meaningful agreement" on its nuclear program. Al Jazeera reported on October 22 that Iran has shifted toward an offensive military doctrine intended to make future US-Israeli attacks more costly. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran still holds missile and drone stockpiles, and that Washington is moving servicemembers and diplomatic staff out of harm's way amid the tensions.

The background to the current standoff includes an earlier round of fighting. In June 2025, the United States joined Israel in attacking key Iranian nuclear sites.