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Brazil Heads to Presidential Run-off as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Remain Close

Elena MarquezPublished 23m ago2 min readBased on 11 sources
Brazil Heads to Presidential Run-off as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Remain Close
Photo by Palácio do Planalto from Brasilia, Brasil / CC BY 2.0

Brazilians will vote on October 25 in a presidential run-off between Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. A run-off is a second round held between the two leading candidates when no one wins an outright majority in the first.

The first round took place on October 4. Flavio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate, won 47 percent of the vote, while Lula, who leads the Workers Party (PT), took just over 45 percent. The gap was less than two percentage points, but Flavio Bolsonaro did not reach the majority needed to avoid a second round.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term as president, a fourth term that would not follow directly on from the third. He won his third term in 2022, when he defeated Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio's father. The former president is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for involvement in a coup plot that followed that loss. Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest of his sons.

Recent polling has shown the race tightening. A Datafolha poll reported on October 22 put Flavio Bolsonaro at 47 percent and Lula at 46 percent, a difference of one point. A Quaest poll reported on October 21 showed Flavio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula had narrowed ahead of the vote. Earlier, a Quaest survey reported on October 14 had shown Flavio Bolsonaro slightly ahead, and a Datafolha poll from October 16 showed him at 51 percent to Lula's 49 percent when blank, null and undecided votes were excluded.

Lula has been trying to win back support since the first round. According to AP reporting on October 23, he has pushed incentives and measures aimed at voters. The campaign has also been marked by heavy online activity, with AP reporting a surge in digital activism and social media engagement around the race.

Al Jazeera described the run-off as tense in its preview of the vote, and noted that polls show Lula closing the gap on Flavio Bolsonaro. The result will determine who holds the presidency after the October 25 ballot.

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