England thrash France 82-0 but still need help to reach World Cup semi-finals

England beat France 82-0 at the Rugby League World Cup, but they cannot yet be sure of a place in the semi-finals. Their fate now depends on two more games and on some very specific arithmetic.

England's campaign got off to a painful start. Tonga beat them 30-12 in the opening match, played at HBF Park in Perth on 17 October in front of 18,302 fans. Tonga's Haumole Olakau'atu scored two tries in that win, while NRL stars such as Jason Taumalolo were available for Tonga in the tournament.

The World Cup format is part of the problem. Pools B and C have been merged into one six-team league, and only the top two sides go through to the semi-finals. A league is simply a group where every team plays every other team, and the table decides who advances.

England must now beat Papua New Guinea in Wollongong on Friday 30 October. Two days later, on Sunday 1 November, Tonga must beat Samoa in Sydney. Only then does the table start to shape up for England.

The tiebreakers are where things get tricky. If Samoa beat Tonga, England are out, because Tonga already beat England head-to-head. A draw between Tonga and Samoa would also eliminate England.

If Tonga win, England and Samoa are separated on points difference. That is the total points scored minus the total points conceded across the group games. England currently sit on +64, while Samoa are on +132, which is 68 points better.

That means England would need to beat Papua New Guinea by at least 68 points. If they do, a Tonga win over Samoa would send England into the semi-finals.

The stakes are high because England, and Great Britain before them, have never finished outside the top four in any of the 16 previous Rugby League World Cups. Falling short this time would break that run.

Tonga came close to beating England in the 2017 semi-finals, when they lost by a single point. That near miss is a reminder that this fixture has been tight before. Samoa, meanwhile, crushed France in the same round that Tonga beat England, so the group has a lot of momentum in the Pacific teams' favour.

For England, the job is simple to describe and hard to do. Win big on Friday, then hope Tonga do their part on Sunday. Whatever happens, the final round will be decided by the points table rather than by the matches alone.