Sir Keir Starmer has suggested that an extra bank holiday could be announced if England win the World Cup, according to the BBC BBC News.

Asked about the possibility, the Prime Minister told the BBC: "On the question of a bank holiday, I think I don't want to jinx it, but ask me again if we get to the final" BBC News. He stopped short of a firm commitment, but the careful wording is significant. When a Prime Minister raises the prospect of a bank holiday without being asked, it typically means preparatory work has already begun in government.

If England win, the bank holiday would likely be Friday 24 July BBC News — five days after the final on Sunday 19 July BBC News. The delay would allow time for the announcement to be made official and give employers some notice, though it still leaves businesses little time to adjust staffing plans.

Before any of this happens, England must get past Norway in the quarter-finals on Saturday night BBC News. Head coach Thomas Tuchel has not yet taken England beyond the quarter-finals in this tournament. A win would mean a semi-final; the final itself is still two rounds away.

Bank holidays in England and Wales are set by ministerial statement rather than Acts of Parliament, which gives the Government the flexibility to declare one at short notice if ministers think the case is strong enough. The Government has used this power before for royal occasions and jubilees, though a football-related holiday would be less common. Scotland and Northern Ireland have different systems for setting bank holidays by convention, and it remains unclear whether a 24 July holiday would apply across all four UK nations. The BBC's report and Number 10 have not clarified this point.

There is an obvious political logic at work here. A Prime Minister who mentions the possibility of a bank holiday ties himself to a potential celebration at little risk — the caveat about "jinxing it" protects him if England lose to Norway. This is a well-established tactic used by leaders of both main parties in past tournaments, and it commits the Government to nothing until results are confirmed.

For businesses, the situation is more complicated. Companies making staffing decisions for late July must plan for a holiday that may not happen, depending on how England performs in two knockout matches. This is not a new problem — previous governments have faced it too — but it means HR departments have little choice but to wait for England's progress or exit to be decided.

That decision will come when the quarter-final against Norway is played and, if England progress, when the final is played on 19 July. For now, Downing Street says the Prime Minister does not want to predict the result. Whether 24 July will be a bank holiday, and whether it would apply right across the UK, remain unanswered questions.