Israel's Election Leaves Coalition Math Unsettled as Count Continues

Early results from Israel's parliamentary election, held on Tuesday, October 27, pointed to a tight race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition and a center-right opposition bloc. Al Jazeera reported that Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the country's parliament. A governing coalition usually needs at least 61 seats, and no single party has ever won a 61-seat majority in Israel.

The vote was the first national election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, according to Reuters. Netanyahu told supporters that his Likud party had emerged as the largest in the country, and said, "We must form a strong right-wing government." Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israeli military who leads the Yashar party within the opposition bloc, said, "Tonight we got the answer: The public opted for change."

Forming a government is likely to hinge on the two Arab parties, which were projected to win as many as 19 seats between them. Netanyahu effectively ruled out including them in his coalition, and Eisenkot and his partners also declined to include them. Eisenkot has floated the idea of a minority government, meaning one that does not hold a majority of seats in the Knesset.

Under Israeli procedure, President Isaac Herzog chooses a potential prime minister after the election. Parties must win at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter the Knesset. Most votes were expected to be counted by Wednesday, but the final tally could take several days.

Exit polls, which are surveys of voters taken as they leave polling stations, may not capture the full picture. They did not reflect hundreds of thousands of ballots cast at special polling stations, including those at military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies, according to The New York Times. Those ballots tended to favor Netanyahu and his allies in Israel's 2022 election.

Netanyahu has also begun speaking about possible economic and diplomatic pressure. In remarks to an Israeli financial journalist, he said he was preparing for international sanctions against Israeli banks, which are penalties that restrict a country's trade or finance, and described a cryptocurrency-based "bypass economy" plan in response. He also told Israelis to prepare for the end of billions of dollars in annual American assistance.

Security has become a point of sharp exchange. Amid reports that Netanyahu pushed for renewed attacks on Iran, Eisenkot warned him, as caretaker prime minister, a title for a leader who stays in office while a new government is formed, "Netanyahu, don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs."