RNZ-Reid poll puts National at 24.8% as Opportunity rises to 7.2%

The National Party has fallen to 24.8% in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous RNZ poll three weeks earlier. The poll was published on 28 October, and it puts Labour on 30.6%, down 0.2 points.

Opportunity rose 1.7 points to 7.2%, the party's highest result in the RNZ-Reid Research poll series. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has promised to negotiate first with whichever party wins the most seats.

The Greens are on 14.5%, ACT on 10.1%, New Zealand First on 9.9% and Te Pāti Māori on 1.9%. The share of respondents who were undecided or would not vote fell to 3.3%, from 5.6% in the previous poll.

On the RNZ-Reid Research numbers, Labour would win 37 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity nine, giving 64 seats in the 120-seat Parliament. National would win 30 seats, ACT 12 and New Zealand First 12, for 54 combined.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins is preferred as prime minister by 23.3% of respondents, up 1.4 points. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is on 17.1%, unchanged. Asked about performance, 39.7% said Hipkins is doing well as opposition leader and 34.7% said poorly. For Luxon, 53.8% said he is performing poorly as prime minister and 30.1% said well.

Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters using online panels from 20 to 26 October. National has dismissed the result as "out of step" with other polls, with voting due to close nine days after the poll's publication.

A separate 1News-Verian poll, which surveyed 1000 eligible voters from 21 to 25 October, split its interviews evenly between phone and online. It put National on 29%, Labour on 27% and Opportunity on 6%, with Opportunity down one point.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll was published on 28 October. Its previous poll, published on 6 October, put National on 25.9%.