Democrats Lead National Polls Five Days Before US Midterms
Democrats held a lead of 8.2 points over Republicans in RealClearPolling's national polling average, according to figures reported on October 29, five days before the US midterm elections on November 3. The average put Democrats at 51.4 percent and Republicans at 43.2 percent (Al Jazeera).
The midterms are congressional elections, and this year all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up, along with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Governor races are also being contested in 39 states. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and Democrats hold 47, a count that includes two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need to reach 51 seats to take control, which means a net gain of four.
In the House, Republicans held a 218-214 edge entering the vote, according to Reuters. Democrats need a net gain of three seats there to overturn the Republican majority.
Several Senate contests are drawing close attention. In Texas, a poll aggregator's average had Democrat James Talarico at 48.5 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 46.7 percent. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988.
In Michigan, a Mitchell Research poll conducted October 26 and 27 for CBS Detroit found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 51 percent to 44 percent. RealClearPolling's average showed El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.
Alaska is another state in play. Donald Trump won it by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election, but Reuters reported on October 26 that recent opinion polls showed Democrat Mary Peltola narrowly leading Republican Dan Sullivan.
The campaign has been carried by senior figures on both sides. Trump, former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance all campaigned in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina on Wednesday, October 28. Trump also spoke at a Republican rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, on October 27.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris returned to the campaign trail in October to help Democrats in some of the tightest races. Her closing stretch, which ran from October 21 to October 30, included stops in New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Mississippi, as well as a Florida virtual event, according to the Associated Press. She was expected to campaign in Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat.
Voters' concerns and enthusiasm are also being measured. NPR reported on October 27 that cost of living was the top concern for voters ahead of the midterms. A Marist Poll survey conducted October 19 and 20 found Democrats with an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, the question of which party voters prefer for Congress without naming candidates. An October 8 Reuters/Ipsos poll found 48 percent of 2024 Harris voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 30 percent of Trump voters.
