England Need a Big Win and a Samoa Upset to Reach the World Cup Semi-Finals
England can still reach the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals, but only with a convincing win over Papua New Guinea and a result that goes their way elsewhere.
England play Papua New Guinea on Friday 30 October at 09:05 GMT, at WIN Stadium in Wollongong, on the coast south of Sydney. Rugby league is the 13-a-side code, and a loss would leave England's route to the last four in serious doubt.
The maths is tight. Teams in a group are separated by points difference, the total points scored minus the total points conceded. England need a 68-point swing in that figure over Samoa, according to BBC Sport. They also need Samoa to lose to Tonga on Sunday. Missing the semi-finals would be the first time England have failed to reach the World Cup last four.
England have been up and down. They lost 30-12 to Tonga on 17 October, a game that head coach Brian McDermott's side played without Morgan Knowles, who was recovering from a calf problem. Last weekend they thrashed France 82-0. Even so, they were scoreless for the first 22 minutes of that match before the score opened up. That was their biggest winning margin over France.
McDermott has urged his players not to panic. He said England must stay disciplined and not chase the game with ideas outside their plan. He also said he expects the match to open up at some point, perhaps after 15 or 20 minutes, or maybe not until 35 minutes or the first half. Waiting for that moment without losing shape is the test.
McDermott also made clear that a narrow win will not be enough. England must beat Papua New Guinea convincingly, and he expects them to be a tougher opponent than France. Papua New Guinea trailed Samoa 14-6 at half-time in their own recent game, before losing 64-6.
Team selection gave a couple of clues. Matty Ashton keeps his place on the left wing. Jez Litten starts at hooker, the player in the middle of the front row who is key to winning the ball in the set piece, ahead of Brad O'Neill. O'Neill is on the bench.
For England, the message is simple. Win well, stay calm, and hope Tonga do the rest on Sunday.
