Climate group calls New Zealand's policy rollbacks 'staggering'

Climate Action Tracker has described New Zealand's rollback of climate policies as "staggering" compared with other countries. In an assessment published on 29 October 2026, titled "New Zealand: three years of systematic climate policy rollbacks", the group rated New Zealand's current policies as "inadequate" to meet its 2030 target without buying offshore credits. The assessment is published on the Climate Action Tracker website.

The tracker is a collaboration between Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. New Zealand's Paris Agreement targets, which are its commitments under the international climate agreement, aim to reduce net emissions by 50% below 2005 gross levels by 2030, and by 51-55% by 2035.

Offshore credits are carbon credits bought from other countries that count towards New Zealand's target. The tracker said the proportion of these New Zealand would need to purchase for the 2030 target "is by far the largest in the world."

New Zealand's Treasury estimated that overseas credits could cost up to $5 billion to meet the 2030 target, plus a further $1.6 billion for the 2035 commitment. The tracker said Treasury also estimated the emissions cuts needed overseas would be larger than New Zealand's total annual emissions in 2024.

The tracker cited three decisions as weakening New Zealand's climate policy framework: the scrapping of plans to price agricultural emissions, the ending of electric vehicle subsidies, and the reversal of the ban on oil and gas exploration.

Agricultural methane emissions make up more than 40% of New Zealand's total emissions. They remain exempt from the emissions trading scheme, which puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions.

Under current policies, the tracker projected that New Zealand would be roughly 27-33% above a 1.5°C-compatible level by 2030, and around 40-52% above it by 2035. A 1.5°C-compatible level is one consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

The tracker said the only two comparable examples of policy rollback it was aware of were the United States and Canada. Its previous review of New Zealand, in 2022, rated the policies "highly insufficient" and the domestic target "almost sufficient."

Reuters reported in July 2026 that New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions were falling too slowly to meet national climate targets, with progress stalling in 2024.