North Carolina Is Only Top-Tier Senate Race in NPR's Latest Ranking
North Carolina is the only race in the top tier of a new Senate ranking from NPR, which lists the seat as the most likely to flip in the November 3 midterm elections. NPR's analysis, published October 30, says Democrats are now seen as likely to flip the state. The race was seen as a Toss Up at the start of the 2026 cycle.
Georgia, once seen as a top Republican target, is now seen as a likely hold for Democrats, according to the same analysis.
NPR sorts the rest of its ranking into tiers, ordered from the races most likely to flip to those least likely. Tier 2 includes Michigan, which Democrats hold, and Ohio, which Republicans hold. Tier 3 consists of Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas, all held by Republicans. Kansas appears in Tier 4.
The Senate has 100 seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats now held by Republicans to win control. A net gain means the number of seats won, minus the number lost. NPR said Republicans' remaining Senate targets are principally Michigan, along with New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Some races are less likely to change hands. South Carolina, which Donald Trump won by 18 points, is only leaning toward the Republican Party, NPR said. NPR also said Mississippi and Nebraska are more competitive than Republicans would like, but that Republican candidates are favored in both states.
NPR said its tier ratings are based on the Cook Political Report. Cook uses a seven-point scale that runs from Solid D to Solid R, and it describes its Senate ratings as nonpartisan.
Candidates are also being asked about the outcome. In an October 15 report, Reuters said just over half of major-party candidates in the most competitive Senate races told it they will accept the election results regardless of outcome.
