Greens poll puts party ahead of One Nation in Victoria
The Victorian Greens have shared internal polling with Guardian Australia that puts the party's statewide primary vote above One Nation's ahead of the state election.
The poll was conducted by the Online Research Unit between 14 and 26 October, among Victorians eligible to vote. It had an effective sample size of 1,488, a margin of error of 3 per cent and a 95 per cent confidence level. The margin of error is a measure of how far the result could sit from the true figure.
The Greens' poll put the Coalition on a primary vote of 32 per cent, Labor on 25 per cent and the Greens on 15 per cent. A Newspoll published on the Monday before 1 November had the figures at 33, 24 and 14 per cent respectively. Newspoll also had the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on two-party-preferred terms in Victoria.
The two polls differ most on One Nation. Newspoll put the party on 20 per cent of the primary vote, while the Greens' poll had it on 14 per cent, a gap of six points. The Greens said their poll results were consistent when respondents were asked about upper-house voting intention.
Greens sources said the internal polling left the party confident of retaining its three seats and winning Prahran and Northcote.
Earlier in the campaign, Guardian Australia reported that One Nation could end up holding the balance of power in Victoria's lower house if polling held. The same outlet reported in October that polls had One Nation's statewide vote hovering around 20 per cent, with higher support in regional areas. A Conversation article published on 27 October reported polling that put the Coalition on track to win majority government without needing One Nation's support.
Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson made her first public criticism of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party in the week before 1 November.
Wilson has also agreed to take part in a four-way leaders debate with Premier Ben Carroll, One Nation leader Warren Pickering and Ellen Sandell. Wilson had set a condition that the Greens be included, and Carroll has also agreed to the debate. The 90-minute event is to be hosted by the Herald Sun and News24.
