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Neocloud Firms Face Debt Pressure as Shares Fall and Forecasts Turn Grim

Elena MarquezPublished just now3 min readBased on 11 sources
Neocloud Firms Face Debt Pressure as Shares Fall and Forecasts Turn Grim
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Analysts at Gartner predict that 80% of neocloud firms will cease independent operations by 2030. The forecast comes as shares in several of these companies have fallen sharply in the past month, according to BBC reporting.

Neocloud firms run large warehouses of computers and lease that computing capacity to AI developers, including Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta. Many of them began in other businesses. CoreWeave was founded in 2017 with a focus on mining Ethereum, a cryptocurrency, while IREN, Core Scientific and Applied Digital started out in crypto mining too. Nebius was known as Yandex NV until it split off and changed its name in 2024.

To pay for the computers, these firms sign long-term lease contracts with technology customers. They then borrow money using those contracts, along with the AI chips they have bought, as collateral, meaning assets a lender can claim if a loan is not repaid. CoreWeave has accumulated $35.1bn (£26.3bn) in debt.

CoreWeave's stock has lost a quarter of its value over the past month. Shares in Nebius, IREN and Applied Digital have shed about a quarter or more over the same period. CoreWeave's chief executive, Mike Intrator, said the market is acting irrationally and expressed confidence in the company's business model.

Forrester experts expect at least three neocloud firms to be acquired soon as their finances become shaky. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking to CNBC, described neocloud firms as a small component of the wider AI ecosystem.

The sector's borrowing sits within a larger picture of debt. According to Forbes, total AI-related debt issuance had reached more than $500 billion by late 2026. Reuters reported that S&P Global warned the largest technology companies, known as hyperscalers, likely have more AI-linked debt than is currently known. The New York Times reported that debt trouble at CoreWeave, Oracle and SoftBank raises questions about broader problems with the data centre build-out.

Deal activity is also rising. Dealogic data cited by Reuters put mergers and acquisitions involving Asian data centres at $21.3 billion as of mid-October 2026, a pace that was on track for a record year. Nebius has said that prices for AI computing are rising, according to CNBC.

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