Green Party says youth emigration will cost New Zealand $76 billion in GDP

The Green Party says a rise in young people moving overseas since 2023 will cost New Zealand $76 billion in gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of the goods and services the economy produces, over the next four decades. The party's estimate was prepared by Victor Consulting, which the party commissioned and which is run by Clint Smith.

The study found 77,500 New Zealanders aged 18 to 30 left the country long-term between 2023 and 2025. That is 60 percent more than the 2016–2019 average of about 16,000 a year.

The study estimated that $29 billion of public spending on health and education had gone into this group before they left. It estimated that $12 billion of public investment would be lost for good with young leavers who do not return. The study cites a Treasury observation that 43 percent of young people who leave New Zealand never return.

Compared with pre-Covid levels, the Green Party says the surge will cost $40 billion in lost earnings over the next four decades. It says it will also cost $6 billion in foregone net tax and lost public investment over the same period. The study put the lost earnings from work for the 2023–2025 group at $104 billion, and the lost GDP from that group at $196 billion, over the next four decades.

Stats NZ, the government's statistics agency, reported in its June 2025 international migration release that the departure rate for New Zealand citizens aged 18 to 30 was 31 per 1,000 people in that age group. In its most recent migration figures, Stats NZ reported a net migration gain of 17,600 in the year to June 2026, up from a net gain of 10,300 in the year to June 2025. Net migration is the number of people arriving in the country minus the number leaving.