Politics

Poll projects hung Parliament, with the coalition tied with a left-leaning bloc

Hana SinclairPublished 12m ago2 min readBased on 7 sources
Poll projects hung Parliament, with the coalition tied with a left-leaning bloc
Photo by Office of the Governor-General (New Zealand) / CC BY-SA 4.0

A new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll projects a hung Parliament, with the current coalition tied with a left-leaning bloc that includes the Opportunity Party. A hung Parliament is one in which no party or group of parties holds a clear majority of the 120 seats.

Curia reported the results for the Taxpayers' Union, a lobby group that commissions the polls. National was on 28.9 percent, up 0.4 points, which would give it 35 seats. Labour was on 28.4 percent, up 0.2 points, equal to 34 seats.

The Greens were on 14.4 percent, up 1.1 points, for 18 seats. ACT was on 10.5 percent, up 1.3 points, for 13 seats. New Zealand First fell 2.2 points to 9.8 percent, which would give it 12 seats.

The Opportunity Party was on 5.8 percent, up 1.0 point, for 7 seats. Te Pāti Māori was on 1.1 percent, down 0.3 points, for one seat.

On the seat projection, National, ACT and New Zealand First would hold 60 seats between them. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 53. With the Opportunity Party included, the left-leaning bloc would also reach 60.

In the preferred prime minister measure, Christopher Luxon was on 23.8 percent, up 2.6 points, and remained the top choice in the Curia series. Chris Hipkins was on 22.6 percent, up 1.6 points. Winston Peters was on 10.3 percent, down 3.6 points. Chlöe Swarbrick was on 6.0 percent, up 1.1 points, and David Seymour was on 5.9 percent, down 0.1 points.

The poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between 28 October and 3 November. The results were weighted by gender, age and area. The margin of error is 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level, meaning that a result could differ from the figure for the whole electorate by about that much either way, in most cases.

The Taxpayers' Union said the gap between National and Labour was half a percentage point, and that net country direction, the measure of how many people think the country is heading in the right way, had jumped to a 19-month high. The November poll is the final Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll before the general election.

Related Articles