ACA Premiums Set to Rise About 13% in 2027, While Insurer Requests Run Higher at 15%
Average full-price premiums for federal and state-run ACA marketplace plans are set to rise roughly 13% for 2027, according to KFF analysis reported by Yahoo Finance. Full price means the premium before any federal premium tax credit, the subsidy that lowers monthly premiums for eligible enrollees, is applied. The figure therefore tracks the sticker price, not what a subsidized enrollee pays.
The 13% figure sits alongside a larger number from insurer filings. Across 276 insurers participating in the marketplaces in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the median proposed premium increase for 2027 is 15%, according to HealthSystemTracker, which dates its brief to July 8, 2026. The two figures measure different things. One is an average of full-price premiums. The other is a median of proposed rate changes, meaning the middle value when every insurer's request is lined up from smallest to largest.
For anyone modeling 2027 plan costs, keeping these apart matters. A median proposed increase can differ materially from the average change in premiums that ultimately takes effect, and a single carrier's filing can sit far from either.
Timing is already set. KFF reports that open enrollment for 2027 coverage starts November 1, 2026, in most states. That date is now past, so consumers in those states are choosing plans against these proposed and projected rate increases.
Eligibility is changing too. Beginning January 1, 2027, the 2025 reconciliation law, a budget law passed that year, will limit immigrant eligibility for ACA Marketplace subsidies.
For the people affected, that change lands on top of higher sticker prices. The subsidy cushion that has shielded many enrollees from the full-price figure will now cover a narrower group.
Provider payment runs on a separate track. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a 0.09% increase in reimbursement rates, the amounts paid to providers for care, for 2027. That figure tracks what providers receive, not what enrollees pay in premiums, and the two should not be conflated.
In my view, a rate change of that size is small in isolation, and it does not offset the premium increases on the consumer side of the market.
The direction was flagged early. In December 2025, MarketWatch reported that people will likely pay even more for Obamacare in 2027 than in 2026 because of higher insurance costs. The KFF and insurer-filing figures now line up with that forecast, and the later numbers pin down how large the increase is.
The broader context here is that insurers and households are asking different questions. For insurers, the premium picture sets pricing adequacy for the year ahead. For households, the question is whether a subsidized plan still costs what it did, and whether an unsubsidized enrollee's budget can absorb a rise of this size. The full-price average, the proposed-rate median, and the January 2027 eligibility change each answer a different part of that question. They are worth reading together rather than treating any one as the whole story.
