Chris Hipkins says Labour has not lost momentum despite a drop in support in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll. Labour polled at 34 percent, down 1.6 points since March. National fell 2.1 points to 28.7 percent RNZ.

Speaking to RNZ's Morning Report, Hipkins framed the movement over a longer stretch. He said Labour had gained roughly six points of support since the 2023 election. He called National "the most unpopular first-term party under MMP" and described Labour as "probably one of the most popular first-term oppositions since MMP was introduced" RNZ.

How polling translates to parliament

Under New Zealand's MMP system, what matters most is not the headline party vote but how many seats each side would win. On this poll's numbers, the governing coalition would return 61 seats against 59 for the combined opposition RNZ.

That seat count reveals something the party-vote numbers obscure. New Zealand First recorded its strongest result in the Reid Research series in nine years. This means the coalition's parliamentary majority is currently being carried by a support partner rather than by National itself RNZ. For a first-term government twelve months from an election, that is not comfortable territory. It is the detail Hipkins' "most unpopular first-term party" comment was designed to highlight.

Hipkins was careful to head off any suggestion that Labour's own slight fall reflected stalling momentum since January. He rejected that characterisation directly, arguing instead that the campaign proper was "just getting underway" and that Labour was only now starting to roll out its own policy platform RNZ. That is the standard response from an opposition leader facing soft poll numbers — blame timing rather than substance, and point to the incumbent's larger fall as the real story.

On policy, Hipkins used the interview to attack the government's KiwiSaver settings, calling National's approach "half-baked" and arguing it would push low-income earners into significant financial hardship RNZ. He also confirmed Labour's in-principle support for New Zealand joining the Ocean of Peace Alliance, a Pacific security arrangement between Australia and Fiji, giving the government some cross-party support on that front even as the domestic contest sharpens RNZ.

National has said it will not change its leadership. Brigitte Morten, a National Party volunteer and managing director at law firm Franks Ogilvie, said the poll would not trigger a change at the top RNZ. That is the expected public line from a party insider. It is worth reading as reassurance rather than confirmation that the question is not being asked inside the caucus.

What the broader polling picture tells us

Both major parties are shedding support at the same time. Minor parties — New Zealand First chief among them — are picking up the difference. This is a familiar MMP dynamic in the lead-up to a campaign year, when voters start exploring their options before settling closer to polling day.

What this means for the actual shape of Parliament matters more than either party's headline numbers in this cycle. A 61-59 seat split between the two blocs is tight. Neither side can claim clear momentum, whatever the leaders say on Morning Report.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll series has been running since April 2025, which gives this survey enough track record now to make trend comparisons meaningful RNZ — like the nine-year high for New Zealand First. The shift for both major parties between March and July is the first genuinely comparable movement the series has captured as both sides now openly call this the start of the campaign.