Final poll has Labour ahead of National, with Opportunity just over the threshold
Labour is ahead of National in the final The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll before Saturday's general election, with 30.7% support to National's 26.4%. RNZ reported the poll, which was run with Infrastructure NZ.
Labour is up two points since The Post's previous poll in October. National is down 1.2 points over the same period, leaving Labour four points clear.
The Opportunity Party is on 5.1%, down 0.3 points. That is just over the five per cent threshold a party must reach to enter Parliament. The Greens are on 13%, down 1.2 points, while NZ First is on 12%, up 0.2 points. ACT has risen 0.8 points to 9.8%, and Te Pati Māori is on 2%, up 0.1 points.
According to The Post, the Opportunity Party would hold the balance of power if its 5.1% holds through special votes, the ballots counted after polling day. Holding the balance of power means its votes could decide which side is able to form a government.
On seats, the poll gives National, ACT and NZ First a combined 59 of the 120 seats in Parliament. That is two short of the 61 needed to govern. Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori would hold 55 seats between them.
The poll also breaks down results by age. Among voters under 35, Labour is on 40.7%, the Greens on 22.8% and National on 17.9%. Among voters over 55, National is on 32%, NZ First on 15.5% and ACT on 14.3%.
Earlier this campaign, a 1News Verian poll had National ahead at 29.5% and Labour at 28.8%. In that poll the Greens were on 16.4%, ACT on 10.0% and NZ First on 8.4%.
