Markets expected to be calm after New Zealand election

New Zealand financial markets are expected to be relatively calm when they open at 10am on Monday, the first trading day after the election, according to Mark Lister, investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. He said the markets were unlikely to be strongly affected by uncertainty over the result.

The election was held on 7 November 2026. Voters were choosing a government at a time when cost of living, housing, jobs and public services were the dominant issues, according to Reuters. The National party was the ruling party going into the vote.

The share market, the NZX, closed at 13,998 on Friday. That was down just over half a percent, after it reached a record high on Thursday.

Mr Lister said any effect of the election on markets would most likely show up in the New Zealand dollar, and he expected even that effect to be minor. Some traders have expressed concern that a left-leaning government could weaken the dollar, according to the New Zealand Herald. Some traders also worried that such a government could make the cost of living worse.

Mr Lister said bigger global factors were worrying markets more than the election outcome. He named fallout from the United States midterm elections, the Middle East, oil prices, inflation and interest rates, and the artificial intelligence trade and the technology sector. Global share markets had already wobbled on 3 November as investors watched the outcome of the US midterms, Reuters reported.

Uncertainty around the election has also been felt by businesses. A recent survey by accounting firm MYOB found that election uncertainty stopped a quarter of firms from making purchases, according to RNZ.