Hamas is set to hold a run-off election next week to choose its political bureau chief, with former political leader Khaled Meshaal facing off against former deputy chairman Khalil al-Hayya, according to Hamas sources cited by Al Jazeera on July 16, 2026.

Neither candidate secured an absolute majority — meaning 50 percent plus one vote — in the initial rounds of voting by Hamas's Shura Council, the movement's internal decision-making body. Under Hamas's internal rules, that triggers a run-off between the top two candidates. A second Hamas source told Al Jazeera that security challenges from the ongoing war forced the movement to set aside its usual grassroots voting process, with a narrower group participating in the political bureau elections. The same sources pushed back against reports that Hamas might shift to a hidden or collective leadership, saying the new chief's identity will be formally and publicly announced once the votes are finalised.

The winner replaces a transitional council that has run the movement since Yahya Sinwar was assassinated in Gaza in October 2024. The new chief will serve until fresh elections in 2027. Reuters had reported on October 18, 2024 that Hamas would likely replace Sinwar with a leader based outside Gaza — a projection now taking shape in a contest between two figures who both operate from outside the Strip, though from different power bases.

Meshaal led Hamas politically from 2004 to 2017, according to Reuters. He was re-elected as the movement's leader abroad as of July 13, 2026, succeeding Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in January 2024, JNS reported. Al-Hayya was named Hamas leader in Gaza as of mid-July 2026 and is based in Qatar, where he has been widely regarded as Hamas's most influential figure abroad since Ismail Haniyeh's death, per Reuters. He previously served as Sinwar's deputy in Gaza and led Hamas's team in indirect ceasefire negotiations with Israel under Sinwar's leadership.

Reuters identified both men as frontrunners as early as January 13, 2026, in what would be Hamas's first leadership election since Sinwar was killed. The selection process has been protracted. Asharq Al-Awsat reported on June 16, 2026 that a "blank ballot" round occurred during the leadership vote before the run-off was triggered, and that under Hamas regulations the run-off was expected within 20 days of the inconclusive initial round.

A Hamas source told Al Jazeera that if al-Hayya does not win the top post, he is expected to become deputy political chief. That arrangement follows a 2021 framework requiring Gaza representation in the movement's top two leadership positions. This structural rule adds a layer of calculation to the run-off: even the losing candidate may secure a senior role, ensuring that the Gaza contingent retains institutional representation regardless of the outcome.

Both Hamas sources confirmed that comprehensive grassroots elections across all three regions — Gaza, the West Bank, and the diaspora (Palestinians living outside the occupied territories) — are scheduled to begin next year, subject to security conditions. The current narrowed process is thus explicitly framed as an interim mechanism dictated by wartime constraints, not a permanent departure from the movement's consultative traditions.

The broader context here is a leadership succession shaped by Israel's targeted killings of successive Hamas chiefs — Sinwar, Haniyeh, and al-Arouri — which has thinned the movement's senior ranks and compressed its internal deliberations into a narrower circle. The choice between Meshaal and al-Hayya carries implications beyond personality. Meshaal, the Damascus- and then Doha-based veteran who led the movement for thirteen years, offers continuity with Hamas's external political apparatus and its relationships with regional states. Al-Hayya, deeply embedded in both the Gaza leadership structure and the ceasefire negotiation track, brings a more operational profile shaped by the post-October 2023 war environment.

Whoever prevails will inherit a movement under extraordinary military and political pressure, with its governance capacity in Gaza degraded, its hostage-negotiation leverage a subject of ongoing mediation, and its regional standing in flux. The public announcement of the result — as opposed to a concealed or collective leadership arrangement, which the sources rejected — will also serve as a signal to external actors, including Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and the broader Palestinian factions, about how Hamas intends to present itself in the next phase of the conflict and any subsequent political process.