Australian Minister Says Paris Climate Goal of 1.5C Is Out of Reach

Australia's minister for climate change and energy, Chris Bowen, has said that "the world has no chance of holding to 1.5 degrees." He made the remark at COP31, the United Nations climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, where he is leading negotiations.

The 1.5-degree figure comes from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, under which almost every country pledged to try to limit global warming to that level. It equals 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels, the temperatures recorded before the industrial era. Scientists warned that crossing that threshold would bring more common and intense extreme heat, more powerful storms, rising seas, and disproportionate damage to poor countries.

For the past decade, the climate movement rallied around the slogan "Keep 1.5 Alive." Bowen's comments put that phrase under new strain, though the goal itself remains a formal ambition of the Paris agreement.

Scientists say that without drastic efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, it is very likely the planet will warm at least 2.6 degrees Celsius, or 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit, by the end of the century.

Extreme weather has already caused heavy loss of life. A European heat wave killed an estimated 50,000 people. In Nepal, a glacier collapse killed thousands of people and wiped away towns.