Republicans and their allied groups ran nearly 300 immigration-related ads nationwide from January through June 2026, compared with 62 such ads from Democrats and their supporting organizations, according to an NPR analysis of data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact published July 17. The gap continues a spending pattern that has shaped the past several election cycles and gives an early look at how both parties are positioning the issue ahead of the November midterms.

The NPR analysis counted ad purchases catalogued by AdImpact across the first six months of 2026. The count covered spots that either mentioned immigration or were devoted entirely to the subject, spanning federal and state races (NPR).

Two of the most expensive individual immigration-themed ads in the data set came from Republican candidates and outside groups. Perry Johnson, running for governor of Michigan, aired a $928,000 spot focused on immigration. The MAGA KY PAC spent more than $831,000 on an ad targeting Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Massie lost his 2026 primary to Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein (NPR).

The Massie race shows how immigration messaging has worked not only as a general-election tool against Democrats but as a lever within the Republican Party. A super PAC aligned with the GOP establishment used the issue against an incumbent who had broken with Trump-era positions, and the spending coincided with Massie's defeat. Whether immigration was the decisive factor is not established by the data.

Cameron Shelton, a professor of political economy at Claremont McKenna College, is cited in the NPR analysis, which frames the spending totals against the backdrop of an election landscape where more than 90% of gubernatorial, House, and Senate seats up in 2026 are considered safe for one party. With the primary season more than half over as of mid-July, much of the competitive ad traffic has been concentrated in a narrow set of races (NPR).

The immigration ad spending through June does not capture developments after the data collection period. In July 2026, immigration enforcement officers shot and killed people in Maine and Texas. Those incidents fall outside the AdImpact window but will likely shape ad content in the remaining months before November (NPR).

The partisan gap in the first half of 2026 fits a longer trend. Politico reported in December 2024 that Republicans outspent Democrats five to one on immigration ads during the 2024 election cycle. Mother Jones reported in October 2018 that Republican immigration ad spending in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races had increased more than fivefold from the $23 million spent in the 2014 cycle. The New York Times reported in April 2024 that Republican ads were increasingly deploying the word "invasion" to describe immigration and the southern border.

An ACLU review of $247 million in immigration-related political ad spending found that more than one-third of 745 ads evaluated included depictions of Border Patrol. AdImpact separately catalogued a February 2024 blog post titled "Immigration as Republicans Attack in Waves," indicating the firm has tracked the pattern for more than two years (AdImpact).

Total ad spending projections for the 2026 cycle have moved upward over time. OpenSecrets reported in January 2026 that midterm political ad spending was projected to reach a new record high. AdImpact's September 2025 projection put the cycle at $10.8 billion (AdImpact). A revised AdImpact report published June 11, 2026, raised that figure to $11.6 billion (AdImpact).

AdImpact's Q2 2026 TV Insights Roundup, published July 15, reported that Donald Trump appeared in more than 500,000 ads during the quarter, a volume that outpaced ads about taxes, healthcare, immigration, and crime as separate issue categories (AdImpact).

The broader context here is that personality-driven messaging is competing with, and in raw volume exceeding, issue-specific spots across the board. For operatives tracking the immigration ad war, the first-half 2026 data confirms a structural reality: Republicans continue to dominate the paid-media airwaves on the issue, Democrats continue to engage at a fraction of that volume, and the competitive universe of races where these ads can move votes remains small. How the post-June enforcement incidents reshape ad strategy is the variable to watch through Labor Day.