New Zealand First leader Winston Peters used the party's campaign launch in Auckland on Saturday 18 July to announce a $1 billion government-funded surveying programme for oil and gas, putting fossil fuel exploration front and centre in the party's election pitch.

The policy, formally called the National Subsurface Development Survey, would put an initial $1 billion into surveying Aotearoa's offshore basins — the large underwater areas where oil, gas and geothermal resources may sit (Stuff). The goal is to build a single national dataset covering energy, geothermal, and CO₂ storage sites, so future governments and companies would know exactly what lies beneath the seabed and where (Interest.co.nz). NZ First says it will campaign on the survey at the upcoming election (NZ Herald).

Peters called the plan a "game changer" and said it could potentially happen "within six years" (RNZ). He used the convention speech to go after both National and Labour, saying they had tinkered with fuel security by offering solar panel solutions rather than dealing with the underlying question of energy supply.

The major parties' responses were mixed. Labour does not support the plan. National did not give it a firm endorsement, with energy spokesperson Simeon Brown saying only that National already supports oil and gas exploration (RNZ). That matters under MMP, where minor parties usually need a coalition partner to turn their policies into reality. National's general stance on exploration is more favourable than Labour's, but its reluctance to explicitly back this specific survey leaves Peters without a clear partner for it.

The campaign launch closed out NZ First's convention, which drew the largest number of delegates in the party's history (RNZ). The party is gaining support across all polls and bucking the historical trend of minor parties losing ground after entering government. Former National MP Harete Hipanga-Brownlie also appeared at the convention, now standing as a New Zealand First candidate.

NZ First MPs have been laying the groundwork for this policy for months. Shane Jones, in a speech published by the party after a public meeting in New Plymouth, addressed the economic consequences of reduced oil and gas activity (NZ First). On the party's YouTube channel, Jones said "Labour destroyed the entire energy ecosystem by cancelling the oil and gas sector." The party's website separately advocates for removing the ban on oil and gas exploration as part of a broader page on geothermal energy and fisheries reform (NZ First). Green and NZ First MPs have already clashed publicly over the exploration ban reversal on TVNZ Breakfast (1News/YouTube).

The broader political question is whether NZ First can turn this momentum into an actual policy outcome. The party is polling strongly and drawing record convention attendance, but the $1 billion survey needs either a majority mandate or a coalition partner willing to adopt it. National's guarded response suggests the party is wary of being locked into a specific spending commitment before negotiations begin. Labour's outright opposition narrows the path further. Peters's six-year timeframe implicitly acknowledges that even with political support, the surveying itself would span more than one electoral cycle.

Former United Future leader Peter Dunne publicly reacted to the campaign launch and its oil and gas policy on the Weekend Collective podcast (iHeart). The party also published video of the full campaign launch on its Facebook page (NZ First/Facebook).

For gallery watchers, the dynamics are familiar. Peters is running a campaign designed to maximise his leverage in coalition talks, and the oil and gas survey gives him a distinctive, costed flagship policy that neither major party can easily absorb or dismiss. Whether it survives the negotiation table is another matter. National's preference for its own exploration framework and Labour's opposition mean the survey's fate likely rests on post-election bargaining rather than the campaign trail.