Politics

Arizona Primaries Set Stage for Competitive November General Election

Daniel CaldwellPublished 2w ago5 min readBased on 4 sources
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Arizona Primaries Set Stage for Competitive November General Election

Arizona held its 2026 primaries on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, setting the ballots for a November general election that will include two of the 18 House seats nationwide rated "toss up" by the Cook Political Report and a Republican governor's primary between two sitting members of Congress. NPR

The Cook Political Report's "toss up" rating means the nonpartisan election analysts view the race as too close to call for either party. Only 18 of the 435 House seats nationwide carried that designation as of July 2026.

First Congressional District (Phoenix Metro)

In the First Congressional District, located in the Phoenix metro area, the open seat drew crowded primaries on both sides. Republican Rep. David Schweikert chose to run for governor rather than seek re-election, leaving the seat without an incumbent. NPR

The Democratic primary featured a rematch of sorts. Former state lawmaker and emergency medicine physician Amish Shah and former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods were the frontrunners. In the 2024 cycle, Shah defeated Galán-Woods in the Democratic primary before losing to Schweikert in the general election. Galán-Woods, who was a registered Republican until 2018, held the endorsement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in this cycle's primary. The DCCC is the campaign arm of House Democrats and its endorsement signals which candidate the party is investing in. NPR

On the Republican side, the primary included former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who carried President Trump's endorsement, and former state lawmaker Joseph Chaplik, who was a member of Arizona's right-wing Freedom Caucus. NPR

Sixth Congressional District (Tucson to the Border)

The Sixth Congressional District, running from Tucson toward the border with Mexico, was also rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, first elected in 2022 and re-elected in 2024 with 50% of the vote, was unopposed in the Republican primary. Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a military veteran who served two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan, was unopposed in the Democratic primary. The two will face each other directly in November. NPR

Governor's Race

The gubernatorial race is equally contested. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is seeking re-election after narrowly defeating Republican Kari Lake in 2022. The Republican primary featured two sitting U.S. House members: Rep. Andy Biggs and Rep. David Schweikert. Biggs held President Trump's endorsement and the endorsement of Turning Point Action, a conservative advocacy group, and polls showed him as the frontrunner over Schweikert. Biggs voted in Congress against certifying the 2020 presidential election results. NPR

Voter Landscape and Key Dates

Republicans narrowly outnumbered independents and Democrats in voter registration, according to Arizona Secretary of State data. Donald Trump won Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. NPR

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes oversees the 2026 election cycle. Arizona Secretary of State The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The last day to register to vote is October 7, 2026, the same day early voting begins and early ballots are mailed. Arizona Secretary of State

What to Watch

The broader context here is that Arizona continues to function as a genuine three-way battleground. The razor-thin voter registration margins mean that turnout mechanics and independent voters will likely decide both toss-up House districts and the governor's race. In AZ-01, the DCCC's decision to back Galán-Woods over the 2024 nominee, Shah, is a clear signal that party strategists view her crossover appeal and name recognition as better suited to a district that Schweikert carried even in a cycle where Trump won the state. Whether that calculation holds depends on which Republican emerges from a primary where Trump's endorsement of Feely and Chaplik's Freedom Caucus credentials pull the party in different directions. In AZ-06, both parties cleared the field for their preferred candidates, producing a clean incumbent-versus-challenger race in a district Ciscomani won by a narrow margin in 2024.

For the gubernatorial race, a Biggs nomination would put a congressman who voted against certifying the 2020 election results at the top of the Republican ticket in a state Trump carried but where Hobbs won the governor's mansion by roughly 17,000 votes in 2022. Schweikert's decision to leave a toss-up House seat to run for governor, where he trailed in polling, opened AZ-01 to Democratic pickup attempts and effectively expanded the competitive House map by one seat for both parties.