Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to expand its presence in prediction markets, a step that could put the retail brokerage in more direct competition with Kalshi, the platform that has led the category's recent growth. The discussions, reported July 24, arrive as Robinhood's prediction markets business approaches what analysts call a potential turning point in its revenue mix. WSJ

A Bernstein analyst projected in July 2026 that the quarter ending June 2026 could be the first in which Robinhood's prediction markets revenue surpasses its crypto revenue. Bloomberg Prediction markets let people bet on the outcome of real-world events — election results, economic data releases, sports outcomes — through contracts that pay out based on what actually happens. The projection frames the Crypto.com discussions within a clear strategic logic: prediction markets are no longer a side product for Robinhood but a revenue line converging with, and potentially overtaking, a segment the company has invested in heavily.

Robinhood's path to this point has been deliberate. In September 2025, the company was exploring launching its prediction markets product outside the United States, signaling international ambition for the category beyond its domestic rollout. Bloomberg The following month, a Robinhood executive stated the company is open to deals to grow its prediction markets business. Reuters The Crypto.com talks, then, follow a publicly acknowledged willingness to pursue acquisitions or partnerships in this area rather than building from scratch.

The competitive dimension centers on Kalshi. A deal between Robinhood and Crypto.com could put Robinhood in more direct competition with Kalshi, which operates a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. WSJ The CFTC, or Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is the U.S. regulator that oversees derivatives markets, including the event contracts that Kalshi offers. Kalshi's profile has risen alongside growing retail engagement with event contracts, from political outcomes to economic data bets. The interest from Robinhood and Crypto.com reflects an effort to capture share in a category that has moved from niche curiosity to a real revenue driver.

The stakes for market participants are structural. Prediction markets occupy a regulatory gray zone between gambling, derivatives, and securities, and the competitive landscape is still being shaped by how regulators treat event contracts. Kalshi navigates that terrain by operating under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market. Robinhood's prediction markets product runs within its existing brokerage infrastructure. A partnership or deal with Crypto.com, a digital-currency exchange, would add a crypto-native distribution channel to the mix. How regulators view the combination of a retail brokerage, a crypto exchange, and prediction-market exposure in a single relationship is an open question the talks will eventually have to answer if they progress.

The broader context here is revenue diversification. Robinhood's business has historically been concentrated in equities and options, with crypto trading providing a volatile but significant secondary stream. Prediction markets emerging as a revenue line that rivals crypto speaks to both the rapid growth of event-contract volume and the compression of crypto trading fees as the exchange landscape commoditizes. The Bernstein projection that prediction markets revenue could exceed crypto revenue in a single quarter is a signal about the rate of that growth, not a forecast of sustained dominance. Crypto revenue has been cyclical, tied to price action in Bitcoin and other digital assets. Prediction markets revenue, by contrast, is tied to event cycles, which have their own cadence. Whether one durably surpasses the other will depend on volume sustainability across both cycles.

The talks with Crypto.com are at an early stage and may not result in a deal. What is clear from Robinhood's own statements and analyst projections is that the company views prediction markets as a strategic priority, not an experiment. The willingness to partner with a crypto exchange to accelerate that priority suggests Robinhood is weighing speed of market entry against the regulatory and operational complexity of building additional prediction-market infrastructure internally.