Green Party Leader Elizabeth May says the Greens can win the North Vancouver–Capilano by-election on Aug. 31 by campaigning against the Carney government's rollbacks of climate policy. (The Globe and Mail)

The party is running Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist with a doctorate from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver. Luce was nominated on July 15, 2026. (The Globe and Mail; Green Party of Canada)

May formally launched the Luce campaign alongside B.C. Green Party figures on July 19. (Green Party of Canada) A fundraising reception with May and Luce was held at a venue in North Vancouver on July 31. (Green Party of Canada)

Prime Minister Mark Carney called three by-elections earlier this week, including the North Vancouver–Capilano seat. (The Globe and Mail) Elections Canada confirmed the vote for Monday, Aug. 31, with advance polling set for Aug. 21–23. (Elections Canada)

The riding was vacated when former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson stepped down after Carney appointed him Canada's ambassador to the European Union. The Liberals selected Braeden Caley, Carney's former deputy chief of staff, as their candidate. The Conservatives are running lawyer Stephen Curran, who finished second to Wilkinson in the previous year's election with roughly a third of the vote. (The Globe and Mail)

May said she thinks the Greens can make inroads thanks in large part to Carney's major projects push. She pointed specifically to Ottawa's approval of dredging Vancouver's Burrard Inlet to allow larger oil tankers to load from the Trans Mountain pipeline terminal. Carney first floated the dredging proposal in 2025. Environmental groups have raised concerns about the project's threat to local wildlife. (The Globe and Mail)

May argued the Greens could win partly on the strength of their candidate, describing a by-election as a "risk-free tryout of an MP for at most three years." A by-election fills a vacant seat between general elections; the winner serves only the remainder of the current Parliament, which is a shorter commitment than a full four-year term. (The Globe and Mail)

Poll analyst Éric Grenier of The Writ said May's optimism is misplaced, and that a Green win would be "quite a surprise." (The Globe and Mail) Grenier acknowledged on a podcast that he was too swift to downplay the Greens' chances after the party surprised pollsters earlier this month, when provincial candidate Tayte Willows beat P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell in a by-election. (The Globe and Mail)

The riding has not historically been fertile ground for the Greens. The party's best results in North Vancouver–Capilano were third-place finishes in 2008 and 2015. Its highest vote share, 12 per cent, earned it a fourth-place finish in 2019. (The Globe and Mail)

Looking at the electoral mechanics, the party's path is narrow. Wilkinson was a senior cabinet minister with deep local roots. Caley brings direct ties to the Prime Minister's Office. Curran has demonstrated vote-getting ability. For Luce to contend, May will need to consolidate non-Liberal and non-Conservative voters around climate policy as the defining ballot question. The Burrard Inlet dredging decision gives the Greens a localized point of friction with the Carney government, separate from the broader national climate file.

The broader context here is whether environmental concern can be activated in a riding that has not historically rewarded it at the polls. The P.E.I. result offers May a precedent — a recent proof that the Greens can upset expectations. Grenier's public recalibration also suggests the party's recent performance has made pollsters more cautious about flatly dismissing Green chances. A by-election on Aug. 31 will test whether that surprise carries west.