CME Group listed the front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures contract (NGU26) at a last price of $2.685 per MMBtu on August 4, 2026, up $0.003 (+0.11%) on the session with 516 contracts traded (CME Group). A front-month contract is the nearest-to-expiration futures contract — the one most actively traded and most sensitive to current supply and demand conditions. The print extends a multi-week drift below the $3 level that has defined this contract since late May, when it briefly spiked to $3.11/MMBtu on May 19 after trading under $3 for several weeks prior (AGA).

Two days earlier, on August 2, NGU26 settled at $2.751/MMBtu, up $0.004 (+0.15%) on volume of 2,535 contracts (CME Group). The August 4 print thus reflects a $0.066/MMBtu decline from the August 2 level — roughly 2.4% over two sessions on substantially thinner volume (516 versus 2,535 contracts). When volume collapses alongside a price decline in a front-month contract nearing its settlement window, it can amplify price moves and widen bid-ask spreads (the gap between what buyers offer and sellers ask), making the last-price print a less reliable read on fundamental value.

CME Group maintains dedicated quotes, settlements, calendar, and volume & open interest pages for its Henry Hub natural gas futures and options complex (CME Group; CME Group; CME Group; CME Group).

The spot-price backdrop tells a divergent story. FRED lists the Henry Hub natural gas spot price (series DHHNGSP) at a 2026 average of $2.95/MMBtu, with the next monthly release scheduled for August 5, 2026 (FRED). That release will provide the first official read on July spot pricing and could materially inform the market's calibration of storage trajectories heading into the shoulder months — the spring and fall periods when demand for heating and cooling both ease.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published January 14, 2026, projects the Henry Hub spot price to decline approximately 2% to just under $3.50/MMBtu for full-year 2026 (EIA). That forecast was issued when prompt-month prices were trading in a higher range; with the front month now $0.80 below that annual projection, the EIA's next STEO update will be a key watch item for whether the agency revises its full-year mean downward.

The broader context here is a widening gap between what the government forecasts and what the futures market is pricing. The EIA's sub-$3.50 annual forecast sits well above the current $2.685 front-month futures print, meaning the forward curve is pricing a spot environment materially weaker than what the agency projected in January. The August 5 FRED release will be the first hard data point to test whether that divergence is narrowing or widening. For anyone tracking the natural gas complex, the central tension to monitor is whether realized spot prices converge toward the EIA's annual forecast or continue to track the more pessimistic pricing embedded in the forward curve — especially as the August settlement window approaches.