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SanDisk's Revenue Tripled — and the Stock Still Fell. Here's Why.

Marcus SterlingPublished 3d ago4 min readBased on 8 sources
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SanDisk's Revenue Tripled — and the Stock Still Fell. Here's Why.
Photo by Denise Jans on Unsplash

SanDisk reported fiscal year 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year, with net income of $11.43 billion, or $73.76 per diluted share, according to results published August 5 on the company's investor relations site (SanDisk IR). The stock fell roughly 5.3% in after-hours trading and was down 8.2% in pre-open the following morning after the company's fiscal first-quarter guidance came in below what investors had been expecting (MarketWatch; Investing.com).

The full-year numbers cap a period of extraordinary revenue acceleration. In the fiscal third quarter, reported April 30, SanDisk posted revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% from the prior quarter and above the company's own guidance range, with net income of $3,615 million (SanDisk IR). The company also filed a Form 8-K on January 29, 2026 containing results for the fiscal second quarter ended January 2, 2026 (SanDisk IR). The fourth-quarter release confirmed the full-year trajectory but arrived alongside mixed forward guidance, prompting the sharp after-hours and pre-market selloff.

For the fiscal first quarter of 2026, SanDisk guided revenue to a range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion (Yahoo Finance). CNBC characterized the outlook as mixed, noting that the company beat on both earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter but left the Street wanting more on the forward picture (CNBC).

The broader context here is that this pattern — a strong earnings beat followed by a guidance-driven selloff — is common for momentum stocks, where quarterly outperformance has already been absorbed into the share price. A 175% revenue growth rate sets a compounding bar that becomes progressively harder to clear as the business gets larger. When a company growing at that pace issues guidance that, while still representing substantial absolute revenue, fails to exceed the buy-side whisper number (the informal revenue or earnings figure that analysts and large investors privately expect), the market's reaction is less about the headline number and more about the gap between what was already priced in and what management itself is forecasting.

The $10.3–$.8 billion Q1 guidance midpoint of approximately $10.55 billion, when read against the $5.95 billion third-quarter figure, still implies robust sequential growth. The market's negative read therefore hinges on the gap between what that growth implies and what positioned holders had modeled, rather than on any contraction in the underlying business. That distinction matters for investors sorting whether the selloff reflects a fundamental deterioration or a multiples re-rating — a downward adjustment in how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings — driven by expectations that outran even a 175% growth profile.

For the full year, net income of $11.43 billion on $20.25 billion in revenue translates to a net margin of roughly 56.4%. The diluted earnings per share figure of $73.76 provides a per-share anchor for valuation work, though the after-hours reaction indicates that trailing earnings power alone is not the variable the market is currently pricing. Forward guidance and the sustainability of the growth trajectory are doing the heavy lifting on sentiment.

The central tension is the divergence between the reported results and the market's reaction. Record revenue, a near-tripling year-over-year, and net income exceeding $11 billion are unambiguously strong operating outcomes. Yet the stock's 8.2% pre-open decline signals that the marginal investor was positioned for more. Whether that positioning was reasonable given the growth rate, or whether management's guidance is conservatively framed, is the question the next quarter's results will answer.