U.S. stock futures pointed in different directions on August 6, 2026, as investors weighed a possible Strait of Hormuz shipping deal against fresh weakness in AI-related tech stocks. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose about 133 points, or 0.24%, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.13%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.55%, pulled lower by sharp drops tied to renewed anxiety about the artificial-intelligence trade (Quartz).

The previous day's close set the stage. The Dow fell 387.67 points, or 0.71%, to settle at 53,961.45. The S&P 500 closed down 0.07%, and the Nasdaq composite managed a 0.04% gain (Reuters). Earlier in the prior week, stocks had been mixed as a pause in strikes involving Iran was offset by doubts about the AI boom and chip-stock valuations (Wall Street Journal).

The geopolitical story lifting Dow and S&P futures is a proposed Hormuz passage agreement. Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the coordinates of a route through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran's ministry (Reuters). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the strait, a prospect that sent stocks surging and oil prices sharply lower when first floated (Wall Street Journal). A senior U.S. official had separately said Iran should vow to reopen the strait by Saturday or face consequences (Wall Street Journal).

But the deal's feasibility is in serious doubt. On August 6, Reuters reported that shipping industry sources consider the proposed Iran-Oman Hormuz passage deal unworkable for commercial shipping (Reuters). The proposed framework would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait. Iran is also seeking transit fees of between 5% and 7% of the value of cargoes from vessels using the passage, according to a senior Iranian official (Reuters). A cargo-level fee of that size would be extraordinary for a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes. It would directly squeeze refiner margins and raise delivered crude costs in importing regions, assuming any portion of the fee were passed through to buyers.

On the earnings front, Western Digital (WDC) fell on disappointing guidance (Quartz). The decline fed into the Nasdaq 100's underperformance, where AI-driven valuation concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. Valuation concerns here mean investors are questioning whether the prices of AI-related stocks are justified given the companies' near-term earnings expectations.

On the commodities side, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 7.9 million barrels in the latest reporting week, while distillate stocks (heating oil, diesel, and similar refined products) rose for a second straight week (Wall Street Journal). The crude draw signals tightening physical supply, which would normally push prices higher. But the prospect of a Hormuz deal, however uncertain, is the dominant variable for oil pricing right now. If the deal collapses under shipping-industry resistance, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil could reassert quickly. If it proceeds despite industry objections, the cargo-fee structure becomes the new variable to price.

The broader context here is a market pricing two unrelated risks simultaneously. The Hormuz question is binary: either commercial shipping accepts the terms or it does not, and early signals from the industry point toward rejection. The AI narrative is more diffuse but no less consequential for index-level positioning. Nasdaq 100 futures lagging by 55 basis points (a basis point is one one-hundredth of a percent, so 55 basis points equals 0.55%) while Dow futures lead suggests that capital is rotating away from growth and toward tariff- and oil-sensitive cyclical stocks, though one session's futures tape is not a trend. The relevant question for portfolio managers is whether the Hormuz deal's failure to gain shipping-industry traction is already reflected in the overnight bid for Dow and S&P futures, or whether that bid is running on stale optimism from Bessent's earlier comments. The Reuters report dated August 6 is the most recent source, and it directly contradicts the market's apparent pricing of deal probability. That gap between the futures tape and the feasibility assessment from industry participants is the tension worth watching into the cash open.