Sir Keir Starmer has given a heavy hint that an extra bank holiday will be granted if England win the World Cup, according to the BBC BBC News.

Asked about the prospect, the Prime Minister told the BBC: "On the question of a bank holiday, I think I don't want to jinx it, but ask me again if we get to the final" BBC News. The formulation stopped short of a commitment, but Westminster watchers will note the deliberate hedge — a Prime Minister rarely raises the possibility of a bank holiday unprompted unless the groundwork has already been laid in Whitehall.

It is understood that, should England win, the additional bank holiday would fall on Friday 24 July BBC News. That date sits five days after the final itself, which is scheduled for Sunday 19 July BBC News. The gap would allow time for the announcement to be formalised and for employers to be given at least some notice, though a Friday holiday five days after the match would still leave little runway for businesses reliant on staffing rotas.

Before any of that can be tested, Thomas Tuchel's England side face Norway in the quarter-finals on Saturday night BBC News. Tuchel, the German head coach appointed to lead the England set-up, has yet to steer the team beyond that stage in this tournament. A win over Norway would put England into the semi-finals, with the final itself still two rounds away.

Bank holidays in England and Wales are set by written ministerial statement rather than primary legislation, which means Number 10 retains the practical flexibility to announce one at comparatively short notice if ministers judge the political and economic case sound. Precedent exists: one-off holidays have been declared before for royal occasions and jubilees, though a football-related addition would be a more unusual use of that power. Any such holiday would need separate consideration for Scotland, where bank holiday dates are determined differently and by convention diverge from those in England and Wales, and for Northern Ireland, where the Northern Ireland Office has its own arrangements. The BBC's report does not indicate whether the mooted 24 July holiday would extend beyond England and Wales, and Number 10 has not set out its position on that point.

The political calculation behind floating the idea before a ball has even been kicked in the quarter-final is not hard to read. A Prime Minister raising the prospect of a bank holiday attaches himself to a potential moment of national celebration at minimal cost, while the explicit caveat about jinxing the result protects him if England go out to Norway. It is a familiar piece of political stagecraft, deployed by leaders of both main parties in tournaments past, and it commits the Government to precisely nothing until the semi-final whistle blows.

For employers, the uncertainty is more consequential than the rhetoric. Businesses making staffing and payroll decisions for late July are being asked to plan around a holiday that may or may not exist, contingent on results in two more knockout matches. That is not a criticism unique to this Government — previous administrations have faced the same bind when tournament success has raised the question — but it does mean HR departments and public sector employers have limited scope to act until England's progress, or exit, is confirmed.

Confirmation, one way or the other, will not come before the quarter-final against Norway is played and, if England progress, before the final on 19 July. Downing Street's position, as things stand, is that the Prime Minister does not want to pre-empt the result. Whether the Friday 24 July date holds, and whether any holiday would apply uniformly across the UK's four nations, remain open questions the Government has yet to answer.