President Donald Trump told Axios on July 23, 2026, that he was considering a massive attack on Iran that would be "bigger than ever before," adding: "I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it" (Al Jazeera). The statement came on the twelfth consecutive night of US strikes against Iranian territory, a campaign that has progressively targeted infrastructure including bridges and tunnels, according to Iranian media reports. The US military officially confirmed the twelfth night of operations on July 22, 2026 (AP News).

Iran's response has extended well beyond its own borders. After US strikes on the night of July 22, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait on July 23. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its strikes targeted US military assets, including radar and air defense systems in all three countries (Middle East Eye). The IRGC also acknowledged attacking a telecommunications tower in Kuwait, stating it was in direct retaliation for US attacks on Iran's telecommunications infrastructure. In a notable messaging choice, the IRGC addressed the Kuwaiti public directly, insisting that the United States, not Iran, had breached Kuwait's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Kuwait confirmed that its Abdali border crossing with Iraq came under attack by hostile drones on July 23. A Kuwaiti power plant was set ablaze during an earlier wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes in July (Al Jazeera). Iran has also claimed, without independent verification, to have destroyed the US Fifth Fleet's command centre in its attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on July 22 that Tehran would retaliate "an eye for an eye" against any future attacks, including on Iran's infrastructure. Iranian army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia said retaliatory attacks would continue as long as US strikes on Iran's infrastructure and coastal areas persist. The rhetoric on both sides has escalated in lockstep with the operational tempo. On July 22, Trump also told reporters the US would soon strike the area near Pickaxe Mountain, described as Iran's main nuclear facilities (AP News). He had previously posted on Truth Social that if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz without threat within 48 hours, the United States would strike.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February 2026. US military strikes have been conducted in part with the stated aim of opening the waterway (Reuters). Trump announced on July 13 that Washington was "reinstating" a blockade on Iran in the strait, the same day Iran fired at tankers transiting it (AP News). By July 9, the US had struck approximately 90 targets across Iran (AP News). Iranian officials reported that US strikes had killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 as of July 16 (AP News).

The conflict's economic shockwaves are intensifying. Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel on July 23 for the first time since May 2026. The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports and fired at two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea on July 23. Houthi sources told Al Jazeera correspondent Yousef Mawry in Sanaa that Aramco facilities could become a future target if Riyadh does not lift its blockade on Houthi-controlled ports. Two additional tankers were hit after entering routes not authorized by Iran during the July conflict (Middle East Eye). With the Bab al-Mandeb Strait now destabilized alongside the Hormuz shutdown, two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints are simultaneously compromised.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a Security Council meeting that the situation is "getting out of control" and "teetering on the edge of the unimaginable." An interim peace deal signed by the US and Iran in approximately June 2026 has been all but destroyed by the spiraling conflict. Trump's February 2026 executive order reaffirming the national emergency with respect to Iran and establishing a process to impose tariffs on the country now reads as a precursor to the full-scale confrontation that followed (White House).

The broader context here is a conflict that has systematically dismantled every off-ramp. The June interim deal, however fragile it may have been, represented the last diplomatic architecture between Washington and Tehran. Its collapse coincided with the Strait of Hormuz closure, the expansion of strikes to Iranian infrastructure, and the widening of the battlefield to include at least three Gulf states that host US military installations. Iran's decision to strike US assets in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait rather than confining its retaliation to US forces directly in the Gulf reflects a deliberate escalation logic: it raises the political cost for Washington's regional partners and tests the cohesion of the US alliance network. The IRGC's direct address to the Kuwaiti people, framing the US as the violator of Kuwaiti sovereignty, is a calculated information operation aimed at fracturing the coalition from within.

On the US side, Trump's language has shifted from the June 2025 characterization of Iranian nuclear facilities as "obliterated" (White House) to a July 2026 posture in which he is promising strikes on Pickaxe Mountain, Iran's main nuclear complex. That trajectory suggests either that earlier assessments of complete destruction were overstated, or that the scope of nuclear infrastructure targeted has expanded. The president's attendance at the dignified transfer of US soldiers killed in Iranian strikes at Dover Air Force Base on July 22 (White House) signals the domestic political dimension: American casualties are now part of this conflict's cost structure, and the administration is visibly incorporating them into its public posture.

The Houthi escalation adds a third front. By declaring a blockade of Saudi ports and threatening Aramco facilities, the Houthis are leveraging the broader US-Iran war to advance their own objectives against Riyadh. The simultaneity of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb disruptions creates a compounding effect on global shipping and energy markets that no single theater can resolve in isolation. With Trump signaling imminent escalation and Iran's military leadership committing to open-ended retaliation, the conditions for de-escalation are not visible in any statement from either side as of July 23.