A survey of 788 Labour members conducted by ThinkLabour between the end of June and the end of July 2026 finds the party membership prioritising health (43%), the economy (42%), cost of living (39%) and climate change (29%) as Britain's most important issues, with welfare benefits (7%) and immigration (6%) trailing far behind. The survey, led by Christabel Cooper, ThinkLabour's interim director of political strategy, accompanies a report titled "Who is Labour For?" released by the thinktank. (The Guardian)

The findings arrive at a moment of sharp policy tension. Andy Burnham became prime minister in July 2026 after securing the backing of 80% of Labour lawmakers in a leadership election, and has vowed to redirect welfare spending toward higher defence investment. Opposition parties have suggested he would need to win a national election to secure a mandate for those plans. (Reuters; AP News)

The ThinkLabour survey suggests the membership's views on welfare are more internally divided than Burnham's framing might imply. While 47% of Labour members believe the government spends too much on welfare, 21% believe it does not spend enough. When asked how the current welfare bill should be funded, 52% said taxes should be raised, with 70% of that group saying only high earners should bear the increase and 24% supporting higher taxes on everyone. A separate YouGov poll of Labour members published in July 2026 found members split three ways on whether welfare spending should rise, and that members prioritise the cost of living over cutting carbon by 56% to 39%. (The Guardian; YouGov)

On social care, the membership is far more united: 73% said the government should spend more on social care through higher taxes. That figure is consistent with the membership's broader willingness to pay more in taxation for public services rather than reallocate existing spending. (The Guardian)

Defence Spending and the Tax Question

Defence emerges as one of the survey's most striking threads. Sixty-eight per cent of Labour members want Britain to spend more on defence, and among that group, 61% back paying for it through higher taxes rather than reallocation. A Survation poll of 1,078 Labour members conducted between 30 April and 5 May 2026 on behalf of Compass found 74% backed a boost to military spending, and nearly four in ten supported Nato membership. YouGov polling from June 2026 found that increasing defence spending is a majority view among Labour and Liberal Democrat voters (53-56%) but drops to 30% among Green voters. (The Guardian; LabourList/Survation; YouGov)

This creates a notable juxtaposition with Labour voters more broadly. According to polling reported by the Financial Times, a clear majority of Labour voters believe welfare spending is more important than boosting the UK defence budget, a divergence between the party's voter base and its membership on the very trade-off Burnham has placed at the centre of his programme. (Financial Times)

The backdrop is consequential. Keir Starmer won a parliamentary vote on UK welfare reform on 1 July 2025 but suffered a damaging rebellion, with lawmakers voting in favour of watered-down reforms. That episode established welfare as politically hazardous terrain for Labour. Burnham's decision to frame welfare reduction as a funding source for defence spending represents a different approach to the same fault line, though one that the survey suggests the membership is not uniformly sold on. (Reuters)

ThinkLabour's Institutional Footprint

ThinkLabour, formerly known as Labour Together, has become increasingly linked to Andy Burnham's premiership. Its former CEO, Alison Phillips, left the thinktank to become the prime minister's deputy chief of staff. JP Spencer, the organisation's former director of devolution, is now working in No 10 North. Ed Owen, a former Labour adviser during the Blair administration, serves as interim CEO. Three-quarters of Labour members surveyed said they backed Keir Starmer in the 2020 leadership contest, making the sample largely a Starmer-era membership rather than a residual Corbynite base. (The Guardian)

The pipeline from ThinkLabour into government raises questions about the thinktank's role in shaping the intellectual architecture of Burnham's programme. A poll conducted before Starmer's local elections performance showed Andy Burnham with a net favourability of 72% among Labour members. A Survation poll found 63% of members had Burnham in their top three among possible leadership candidates, with Angela Rayner in the top three of 50%. A YouGov poll found that 17% of Labour members cited defence as one of their top three priorities for Burnham, while Ed Miliband was the top pick for chancellor at 21%. (The Guardian; Survation; YouGov; YouGov)

The broader context here is that Burnham inherits a Labour Party that, according to a YouGov poll published in May 2026, still saw 80% of members rating Labour's performance in government positively. Yet Reform UK overtook Labour in a national opinion poll for the first time in July 2026, adding electoral pressure to the policy choices ahead. The membership's willingness to fund both defence and social care through taxation, rather than through the reallocation Burnham has proposed for welfare, suggests the political consensus inside the party may be more tax-and-spend than cut-and-reallocate. Whether Burnham adjusts his framing or presses ahead may determine whether the membership's apparent enthusiasm for his leadership translates into sustained support for his programme. (YouGov; Reuters)