The National-led coalition can still form a government on the latest Taxpayers' Union Curia poll, but only by a single seat. The three governing parties — National, Act and New Zealand First — would hold 61 of Parliament's 120 seats, while the Opposition bloc including the Opportunity Party would hold 59.

The poll, released on Friday, surveyed 1000 respondents between Saturday and Tuesday and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

National rose 0.5 points to 31 percent, retaining its position as the most popular single party in Parliament. Labour dropped 3.7 points to 27.8 percent — a shift that would cost the party five seats on these numbers.

It is a marked change from the previous Taxpayers' Union Curia poll reported by RNZ in early July, which had Labour on 31.5 percent (down 0.7 points) and National on 30.5 percent (up 0.4 points), with the coalition holding a majority. The trajectory before that was narrower still: a March poll had the centre-left in front with Labour at 34.4 percent and National at 28.4 percent.

In this latest result, the Greens dipped slightly to 10.1 percent. Act gained marginally to 7.3 percent. New Zealand First fell 1.7 points to 9.1 percent — a continuation of a downward trend visible since the party hit a record high in the January 2026 Taxpayers' Union Curia poll. That January survey had the coalition strengthening its lead, with Labour at 34.4 percent and National at 31.5 percent.

Te Pāti Māori recorded 1.5 percent, down 1.9 points — its worst result since March 2023.

The Opportunity Party would enter Parliament at 6.1 percent but would sit in Opposition, as National has ruled out working with the party.

In preferred prime minister polling, Christopher Luxon led on 23.2 percent, up 4.1 points. Chris Hipkins was down slightly to 19.8 percent. Luxon reclaimed the top spot in Taxpayers' Union Curia polling back in May and has held it since.

The bloc comparison question continues to favour the right. A Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll in April found a plurality of voters preferred a National/Act/NZ First coalition over a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori coalition.

What stands out in this poll is how thin the coalition's margin has become. Sixty-one seats is the bare minimum needed to govern under MMP, and the margin of error alone could erase it. A 3.1 percent swing on a single party's vote share can shift two or three seats, and the gap between government and Opposition here is two seats. For the coalition, any slippage in National, Act or New Zealand First support between now and election day risks putting that majority out of reach.

Labour's 3.7-point drop is the more dramatic movement. Whether that is a correction from the relatively elevated polling the party enjoyed in the first half of the year or a response to specific political events is not something a single poll can establish. What is clear from the trendline is that Labour's numbers have been volatile across the Taxpayers' Union Curia series in 2026 — ranging from 27.8 percent in this poll to 34.4 percent in January and March.

New Zealand First's steady decline from its January record high will also be worth watching. The party sat well above its current 9.1 percent earlier in the year and has been trending down across successive polls. For Winston Peters's party, which has historically polled above its election-day result, whether that softening continues or stabilises could shape the coalition arithmetic as much as anything National or Labour does.

Te Pāti Māori's drop to its worst polling position since March 2023 raises a separate question for the Opposition bloc. Even if Labour and the Greens were to recover, Te Pāti Māori's ability to hold its electorate seats and contribute to a centre-left government remains relevant to whether the Opposition can assemble a workable majority.

The Opportunity Party's 6.1 percent is a notable result for a party that would cross the 5 percent threshold but find itself locked out of power. National's ruling out of a working relationship means TOP's votes sit on the Opposition side of the ledger without strengthening any path to government.

This poll does not settle the question of who governs after the next election. It does confirm that the coalition's majority has narrowed to its slimmest point in the Taxpayers' Union Curia series this year, and that the seat count rests on margins well within the poll's stated error.