New party could decide who runs the next government
The Opportunity Party has polled above the 5 percent threshold for the first time in the RNZ-Reid Research poll, registering 5.3 percent and putting it in line for six seats in Parliament. If the poll results were replicated on election day, the right bloc would hold 59 seats and the left bloc 55, leaving neither able to govern without The Opportunity Party's six seats, according to RNZ.
In New Zealand's voting system, called MMP, a party needs 5 percent of the vote to get seats in Parliament. A party also needs 61 seats out of 123 to form a government on its own. If no single side gets there, smaller parties holding just a few seats can end up deciding who governs.
The same poll put Labour down 1.8 points to 32.2 percent and National at 29.1 percent. The figures mark a shift from an earlier August RNZ poll that had Labour at 30 percent (38 seats), down 2 points, and National unchanged at 29 percent (36 seats), RNZ reported on 12 August. A Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll conducted in August and reported earlier in the month showed National up 0.5 points to 31 percent, The Spinoff noted on 7 August.
Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong said voters were starting to see the party as "a stable and safe coalition partner," regardless of whether a Labour- or National-led government results. Wong said the party would set out clear bottom lines to give the major parties an idea of how it would approach negotiations, and did not see the point in doing deals now. The party is leaving the door open to National while keeping Labour as an option.
National has ruled out working with The Opportunity Party and is starting to group its policies with those of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. National's campaign chair Simeon Brown said the party would not do a deal, citing Opportunity's proposed land tax on every New Zealander.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said Labour does no pre-election deals and would sit down with other parties after the election based on the voters' result. Hipkins believes National's attack line on tax will weaken as the campaign ramps up, describing it as a "scare campaign."
Wong said she did not believe National's decision to rule out working with the party had necessarily driven its polling increase, with support coming from the traditional left and right. She said there was growing discontent among New Zealanders that the major parties were not setting out a vision for the future.
The Taxpayers' Union published a video on 16 August in which both Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins discussed their respective parties' positions on potentially forming a coalition with The Opportunity Party, Taxpayers' Union. In that poll, Luxon's preferred-prime-minister rating improved to 23.3 percent, while Hipkins recorded 23.2 percent.
The Opportunity Party has previously been open to working with both National and Labour, should either need its support to form a government after the election, RNZ reported on 27 July.
The broader context here is that National's decision to publicly rule out Opportunity narrows its own options, while Opportunity's refusal to pick a side keeps both doors open. Wong's strategy of publishing bottom lines rather than signing pre-election deals is a common approach for smaller parties under MMP. It works a bit like a vendor refusing to commit to a single buyer before auction day; staying open to all sides keeps the final deal as favourable as possible. The question for the campaign ahead is whether National's tax attack on Opportunity hardens or softens as voters weigh the party's policy detail, and whether Opportunity can stay above 5 percent through to election day.
