National's poll numbers keep falling — and a small party now holds the cards
National has dropped to 29.1 percent support in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, its lowest result in the series. Labour has not picked up the voters National lost, and a smaller party — the Opportunity party — now has enough support to decide who forms the next government. The August 2026 poll, published on 23 August, confirms a pattern visible since March: fewer and fewer voters are backing the two main parties, and neither side can reach the 61 seats needed to govern on current numbers. RNZ
National has been sliding across three polls in a row: 32.9 percent in July, 30.8 percent in March, and 29.1 percent now. Labour led the field, but as RNZ put it, "National's pain is no gain for Labour" — the voters leaving National are not moving to Labour in similar numbers. Together, the two major parties now have 62.7 percent of the vote, down from 66.4 percent in March. That opening has let the Opportunity party through: it crossed the five percent threshold and picked up six seats. In New Zealand's MMP system, a party needs 61 seats to form a government. With six seats, the Opportunity party holds the balance of power — neither the current government nor a Labour-led alternative can get to 61 without them. RNZ
The three governing parties were mostly unchanged from the July poll and could not form a government on those numbers. On the opposition side, there was little appetite for a Labour leadership change: 43 percent of respondents said a new leader would not help Labour's chances, while 29.7 percent said it would and 27.4 percent said something else. Those figures come from a July survey, but the overall picture has not shifted. RNZ
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's personal standing has fallen alongside his party's. His net favourability sits at -22.9 percent, and he now trails Chris Hipkins on the question of who voters prefer as prime minister — 19.9 percent to 21.3 percent. The gap is small, but it is the first time in the RNZ-Reid Research series that Luxon has rated behind Hipkins. RNZ
Voters are also more downbeat about the country's direction. A net -20.9 percent said the country is heading the wrong way, nearly double the -11.8 percent recorded in July. That sharp jump in a single month suggests something more than the usual mid-term dip in support, though the poll cannot point to a specific cause. RNZ
The biggest flashpoint is Luxon's decision to rule out working with the Opportunity party. According to RNZ, that call caused unrest within National's own team of MPs. The reasoning is simple: if the three governing parties cannot reach a majority on their own, and the Opportunity party has six seats, ruling them out leaves very few paths to forming a government. Whether that frustration turns into open opposition within the party will depend on whether National's numbers recover or keep falling before the election. RNZ
Reid Research's own results page lists Te Pāti Māori at 5.6 percent, TOP at 1.8 percent, and New Conservatives at 1.1 percent, though those figures are undated and should be treated as a rough guide rather than tied to the August poll. Reid Research
What this means in practice is that the 2026 election could come down to a small party having more say than its vote share would suggest. The Opportunity party's six seats, combined with National's inability to form a government and Labour's inability to absorb National's losses, put that party at the centre of every possible coalition deal. Luxon's refusal to work with them is therefore not just a political signal — it limits his actual options for staying in government. If his MPs see the polls the way the polls read, the pressure on that stance will build.
The trend matters as much as any single poll. National has fallen from 32.9 percent to 30.8 percent to 29.1 percent across successive surveys. Labour has not benefited. The share of voters saying the country is on the wrong track has nearly doubled in a month. And the opposition leader now rates ahead of the prime minister on preferred PM, however narrowly. Each of those things on its own would be manageable. Together, they point to a government losing ground with no clear winner emerging.
