The government's three parties — National, ACT and NZ First — would control 62 out of 120 seats in Parliament if an election were held now, according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll. The opposition would have 58 seats. This is the third poll in a row to show the same result.

The poll asked 1000 New Zealanders how they would vote. Labour came in at 31.5 percent support, National at 30.5 percent. Labour is ahead by a single point. NZ First got 10.8 percent, the Greens 10.4 percent, ACT 6.9 percent and Te Pāti Māori 3.4 percent.

Under New Zealand's voting system, those percentages get turned into actual seats. Labour would get 41 seats, National 39, NZ First 14, Greens 13, ACT 9 and Te Pāti Māori 4. Even though Labour is ahead on votes, the opposition is split between three parties. The coalition has the numbers to pass laws and run the government.

On who would make a better prime minister, Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon came almost level — 19.2 percent for Hipkins, 19.1 percent for Luxon. They are essentially tied.

The poll was done between 1 and 5 July 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent — meaning these numbers could shift a bit in either direction. The fact that three polls in a row have shown the same 62-58 split does suggest the coalition's advantage has been fairly solid in recent months.

National picked up a bit of support this time, while both smaller coalition partners, ACT and NZ First, lost a bit. This pattern has held across recent polls.

There is one thing to flag. The RNZ article is the only public source for these exact numbers. The Taxpayers' Union has not released a full report that shows the detailed breakdown — regional results, which voters were unsure, and so on. If you want to dig into the detail, there is currently nowhere official to look.

For people watching whether the government can keep governing, the seat numbers matter more than the vote percentages. Labour is ahead on votes, but the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have not grown enough to flip the opposition into a majority. The coalition's grip on Parliament seems stable for now.