The National-led coalition can still form a government according to the latest Taxpayers' Union Curia poll, but only by a single seat. The three governing parties — National, Act and New Zealand First — would hold 61 of Parliament's 120 seats, while the Opposition bloc including the Opportunity Party would hold 59.

The poll, released on Friday, surveyed 1000 people between Saturday and Tuesday. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, which means the real results could be slightly higher or lower than the headline figures.

National rose 0.5 points to 31 percent, keeping its spot as the most popular single party in Parliament. Labour dropped 3.7 points to 27.8 percent — a fall that would cost the party five seats on these numbers.

This is a noticeable shift from the previous Taxpayers' Union Curia poll, reported by RNZ in early July, which had Labour on 31.5 percent (down 0.7 points) and National on 30.5 percent (up 0.4 points). Before that, a March poll had the centre-left ahead, with Labour at 34.4 percent and National at 28.4 percent.

The Greens dipped slightly to 10.1 percent. Act gained marginally to 7.3 percent. New Zealand First fell 1.7 points to 9.1 percent, continuing a downward trend since the party hit a record high in the January 2026 Taxpayers' Union Curia poll. That January survey had the coalition strengthening its lead, with Labour at 34.4 percent and National at 31.5 percent.

Te Pāti Māori recorded 1.5 percent, down 1.9 points — its worst result since March 2023.

The Opportunity Party would enter Parliament at 6.1 percent but would sit in Opposition, because National has ruled out working with the party.

In the preferred prime minister poll, Christopher Luxon led on 23.2 percent, up 4.1 points. Chris Hipkins was down slightly to 19.8 percent. Luxon reclaimed the top spot in Taxpayers' Union Curia polling back in May and has held it since.

When voters were asked which bloc they preferred, the right continued to come out ahead. A Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll in April found more voters preferred a National/Act/NZ First coalition over a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori coalition.

Under New Zealand's MMP voting system, a party or group of parties needs 61 out of 120 seats to govern — just over half. The coalition is sitting exactly at that line. The poll's margin of error alone could wipe out the lead: a 3.1 percent shift in one party's vote share can move two or three seats, and the gap between government and Opposition here is just two seats. For the coalition, any drop in support for National, Act or New Zealand First between now and election day could put that majority out of reach.

Labour's 3.7-point fall is the bigger movement in this poll. Whether that is a correction from the higher numbers the party posted earlier in the year, or a reaction to specific political events, is not something a single poll can tell us. What is clear is that Labour's numbers have bounced around across the Taxpayers' Union Curia series in 2026 — from 27.8 percent in this poll to 34.4 percent in January and March.

New Zealand First's steady decline from its January record high will also be worth watching. The party was well above its current 9.1 percent earlier in the year and has been trending down across successive polls. Winston Peters's party has historically polled above its election-day result, so whether that softening continues or levels off could shape the coalition's seat count as much as anything National or Labour does.

Te Pāti Māori's drop to its worst polling position since March 2023 raises a separate question for the Opposition. Even if Labour and the Greens recover, Te Pāti Māori's ability to hold its electorate seats and contribute to a centre-left government still matters for whether the Opposition can put together a working majority.

The Opportunity Party's 6.1 percent is a notable result for a party that would clear the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament but would find itself with no path to power. National has ruled out working with TOP, so its votes sit on the Opposition side without helping to build a government.

This poll does not settle who governs after the next election. It does confirm that the coalition's majority has narrowed to its thinnest point in the Taxpayers' Union Curia series this year, and that the seat count rests on margins well within the poll's stated error.