The latest predictions for Supergirl's opening weekend have weakened. Industry trackers now estimate the film will earn around $51 million in its first three days, down from the $55 million-plus figure that was circulating when the film first entered tracking in early June, per Deadline.

The range of estimates is wide: $47 million to $65 million. That $18 million gap reflects genuine uncertainty. Social media reaction to the film, which stars Milly Alcock as Supergirl, has cooled in the final days before its June 26 release, according to Forbes.

Why does a decline from $55 million to $51 million matter? Box office tracking works like a polling system — studios and theaters use early indicators (social media chatter, ticket presales, preview screenings) to forecast how many people will actually show up. When forecasts decline, it signals softening interest. In this case, the trend suggests fewer people are planning to see Supergirl right away; more may be waiting to stream it later.

A $51 million opening is not a failure. For a major studio superhero film, that would be a workable result. But it's below what Warner Bros. Discovery was likely hoping for, given the money they've already spent rebuilding the DC movie universe under director James Gunn. The concern deepens if the film lands at the low end of the range — $47 million. These films cost $200 million or more to make, and domestic earnings (from U.S. and Canadian theaters) usually account for less than half of a film's total theatrical money worldwide. A weak start makes it harder to hit breakeven without strong performance internationally.

When social media sentiment drops as a film approaches release, that has historically been a reliable warning sign. It does not mean the film will fail, only that the higher-end forecasts become less likely. A $65 million opening is still possible — it would require strong Thursday preview numbers or a meaningful shift in how critics and audiences respond — but the math now favors a result closer to the middle or lower part of the range.

Milly Alcock, best known for House of the Dragon, carries this film. The bigger risk is whether audiences will embrace a new lead in a superhero role. Several recent DC films have fallen short of their opening-weekend forecasts, and many of them launched unfamiliar characters. Alcock is talented, but translating goodwill from television to a $200 million blockbuster is never certain.

Actual ticket sales on Friday will provide the first real data. Thursday's preview numbers — a film's first few hours of paying customers — will be the most reliable early signal of how the full weekend will unfold.